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Paide II vs Luunja — Esiliiga A 2026

Paide II
Paide II
CANC
14:30
Luunja
Luunja
9/16/2021Esiliiga AEsiliiga A · Round 29Paide linnastaadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Paide II55%
×Draw19%
Luunja27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paide II
2.56
Luunja
1.77

Paide II creates 45% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 44 away

creates per match

Paide II
1.86
Luunja
0.89

allows per match

Paide II
2.64
Luunja
3.27

finishing

Paide II+0.00on par
Luunja+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paide II ↓

Luunja →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

Paide II or draw
73%
Paide II or Luunja
81%
Draw or Luunja
45%

Winning margin

Paide II wins by 2+
35%
Luunja wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Paide II 1+ goals
92%
Paide II 2+ goals
72%
Paide II 3+ goals
46%
Luunja 1+ goals
83%
Luunja 2+ goals
53%
Luunja 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Paide II (draw refunded)
67%
Luunja (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paide II at home — creates 1.86, concedes 2.64 · 64 matches

Luunja away — creates 0.89, concedes 3.27 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paide II attack 1.86 + Luunja defence 3.27 → ÷2 → 2.56

Luunja attack 0.89 + Paide II defence 2.64 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Paide II scores more
55%
level
19%
Luunja scores more
27%

Paide II at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Paide II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paide II face Luunja (Esiliiga A)

Esiliiga A returns with Paide II hosting Luunja. Match starts September 16, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Paide II host Luunja at Paide linnastaadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.