Luunja 0–4 Paide II: Result & Stats | Esiliiga A

Luunja

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Paide II

K. Piht 80'

S. Soo 73'

K. Palumets 68' (pen), 45'

8/19/2021

Esiliiga A · Round 17Tartu Sepa tänava staadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Luunja33%

×Draw20%

Paide II47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LuunjaExpected goals in this matchPaide II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.01

2.42

Luunja

2.01

Paide II

2.42

Paide II creates 20% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 63 away

1.62

creates per match

1.97

2.86

allows per match

2.40

creates per match

Luunja

1.62

Paide II

1.97

allows per match

Luunja

2.86

Paide II

2.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Luunja+0.00on par

Paide II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over82
Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes79
No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luunja ↓

Paide II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–24%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–27%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–02%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

82%18%3.5

64%36%4.5

45%55%

Double chance

Luunja or draw

53%

Luunja or Paide II

80%

Draw or Paide II

67%

Winning margin

Luunja wins by 2+

17%

Paide II wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Luunja 1+ goals

87%

Luunja 2+ goals

59%

Luunja 3+ goals

32%

Paide II 1+ goals

91%

Paide II 2+ goals

69%

Paide II 3+ goals

43%

Draw no bet

Luunja (draw refunded)

41%

Paide II (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

73%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luunja at home — creates 1.62, concedes 2.86 · 42 matches

Paide II away — creates 1.97, concedes 2.40 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luunja attack 1.62 + Paide II defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.01

Paide II attack 1.97 + Luunja defence 2.86 → ÷2 → 2.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Luunja scores more

33%

level

20%

Paide II scores more

47%

Paide II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Paide II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

L. Ounpuu

28'

L. Ounpuu

45'

K. Palumets

63'

C. Magimets

64'

M. Einer← J. Luts

68'

K. PalumetsPenalty

71'

M. Kelement

72'

G. Järve← M. Preiman

73'

S. Soo

76'

M. Sepp← K. Burov

76'

F. Trawally← S. Soo

80'

A. Toomsalu

80'

K. Piht

85'

J. Vainjärv← E. Naruson

Luunja

Paide

⚽2

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: M. Pähn

72'▲G. Järve←▼M. Preiman

76'▲M. Sepp←▼K. Burov

85'▲J. Vainjärv←▼E. Naruson

Luunja substitutes

JärveSeppVainjärvPall

Manager: E. Kesküla

64'▲M. Einer←▼J. Luts

76'▲F. Trawally←▼S. Soo

Paide II substitutes

EinerTrawallyHanson

Match Recap: Luunja vs Paide II

Paide II beat Luunja 4-0 in Esiliiga A on August 19, 2021.

Goals: K. Palumets (45', 68' pen), S. Soo (73'), K. Piht (80').

The match was played at Tartu Sepa tänava staadion in Tartu.

Luunja vs Paide II — Esiliiga A 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Luunja vs Paide II