Paide II 2–8 Laagri: Result & Stats | Esiliiga A

Paide II

FT

2 – 8

HT: 2 – 3

Laagri

5/5/2024

Esiliiga A · Round 9Paide linnastaadion kunstmuruväljak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Paide II24%

×Draw18%

Laagri58%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Paide IIExpected goals in this matchLaagri

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

2.68

Paide II

1.70

Laagri

2.68

Laagri creates 58% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 36 away

1.86

creates per match

2.72

2.64

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Paide II

1.86

Laagri

2.72

allows per match

Paide II

2.64

Laagri

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Paide II+0.00on par

Laagri+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paide II ↓

Laagri →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–25%

0–34%

0–43%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–28%

1–37%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–27%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

63%37%4.5

43%57%

Double chance

Paide II or draw

42%

Paide II or Laagri

82%

Draw or Laagri

76%

Winning margin

Paide II wins by 2+

11%

Laagri wins by 2+

38%

Team goals

Paide II 1+ goals

82%

Paide II 2+ goals

51%

Paide II 3+ goals

24%

Laagri 1+ goals

93%

Laagri 2+ goals

74%

Laagri 3+ goals

49%

Draw no bet

Paide II (draw refunded)

29%

Laagri (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

70%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paide II at home — creates 1.86, concedes 2.64 · 64 matches

Laagri away — creates 2.72, concedes 1.53 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paide II attack 1.86 + Laagri defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.70

Laagri attack 2.72 + Paide II defence 2.64 → ÷2 → 2.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Paide II scores more

24%

level

18%

Laagri scores more

58%

Laagri at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Laagri will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff