Laagri 6–0 Paide II: Result & Stats | Esiliiga A

Laagri

FT

6 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Paide II

6/16/2024

Esiliiga A · Round 15Laagri kunstmuru

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Laagri63%

×Draw17%

Paide II19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LaagriExpected goals in this matchPaide II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.71

1.45

Laagri

2.71

Paide II

1.45

Laagri creates 87% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 63 away

3.03

creates per match

1.97

0.92

allows per match

2.40

creates per match

Laagri

3.03

Paide II

1.97

allows per match

Laagri

0.92

Paide II

2.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Laagri+0.00on par

Paide II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Laagri ↓

Paide II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–16%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–18%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

39%61%

Double chance

Laagri or draw

81%

Laagri or Paide II

83%

Draw or Paide II

37%

Winning margin

Laagri wins by 2+

43%

Paide II wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Laagri 1+ goals

93%

Laagri 2+ goals

75%

Laagri 3+ goals

50%

Paide II 1+ goals

77%

Paide II 2+ goals

42%

Paide II 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Laagri (draw refunded)

77%

Paide II (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Laagri at home — creates 3.03, concedes 0.92 · 36 matches

Paide II away — creates 1.97, concedes 2.40 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Laagri attack 3.03 + Paide II defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.71

Paide II attack 1.97 + Laagri defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Laagri scores more

63%

level

17%

Paide II scores more

19%

Laagri at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Laagri will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff