Paide II 1–4 K-Järve JK Järve: Result & Stats

Paide II

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

K-Järve JK Järve

K. Kanne 56'

Ramaz Kardava 85'

Roland Kardava 69'

D. Tsõgankov 33'

V. Velikanov 2'

11/13/2022

Esiliiga A · Round 36Paide linnastaadion kunstmuruväljak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Paide II51%

×Draw20%

K-Järve JK Järve29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Paide IIExpected goals in this matchK-Järve JK Järve

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.41

1.81

Paide II

2.41

K-Järve JK Järve

1.81

Paide II creates 33% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 65 away

1.86

creates per match

0.98

2.64

allows per match

2.95

creates per match

Paide II

1.86

K-Järve JK Järve

0.98

allows per match

Paide II

2.64

K-Järve JK Järve

2.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Paide II+0.00on par

K-Järve JK Järve+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paide II ↓

K-Järve JK Järve →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

60%40%4.5

41%59%

Double chance

Paide II or draw

71%

Paide II or K-Järve JK Järve

80%

Draw or K-Järve JK Järve

49%

Winning margin

Paide II wins by 2+

31%

K-Järve JK Järve wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Paide II 1+ goals

91%

Paide II 2+ goals

69%

Paide II 3+ goals

43%

K-Järve JK Järve 1+ goals

84%

K-Järve JK Järve 2+ goals

54%

K-Järve JK Järve 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Paide II (draw refunded)

64%

K-Järve JK Järve (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

69%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paide II at home — creates 1.86, concedes 2.64 · 64 matches

K-Järve JK Järve away — creates 0.98, concedes 2.95 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paide II attack 1.86 + K-Järve JK Järve defence 2.95 → ÷2 → 2.41

K-Järve JK Järve attack 0.98 + Paide II defence 2.64 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Paide II scores more

51%

level

20%

K-Järve JK Järve scores more

29%

Paide II at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Paide II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

V. Velikanov

33'

K. Kanne

33'

D. Tsõgankov

40'

M. Miskov

43'

V. Velikanov

45+4'

E. Kruglov← K. Pavlov

46'

A. Sutškov← A. Vitrikuš

56'

K. Kanne

62'

K. Karp

69'

M. Lieberg

69'

Roland Kardava

76'

A. Boronilstsikov

76'

M. Einer

80'

K. Ellermaa← M. Pajumaa

85'

Ramaz Kardava

86'

A. Krupski← M. Miškov

86'

A. Pjaterikov← V. Velikanov

87'

K. Karp

87'

K. Karp

Paide

K-Järve

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: M. Rooba

80'▲K. Ellermaa←▼M. Pajumaa

Paide II substitutes

Ellermaa

Manager: E. Šteinberg

45+4'▲E. Kruglov←▼K. Pavlov

46'▲A. Sutškov←▼A. Vitrikuš

86'▲A. Krupski←▼M. Miškov

86'▲A. Pjaterikov←▼V. Velikanov

K-Järve JK Järve substitutes

KruglovSutškovKrupskiPjaterikov

Match Recap: Paide II vs K-Järve JK Järve

K-Järve JK Järve beat Paide II 4-1 in Esiliiga A on November 13, 2022.

Goals: V. Velikanov (2'), D. Tsõgankov (33'), K. Kanne (56'), Roland Kardava (69'), Ramaz Kardava (85').

The match was played at Paide linnastaadion kunstmuruväljak in Paide.

Paide II vs K-Järve JK Järve — Esiliiga A 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Paide II vs K-Järve JK Järve