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K-Järve JK Järve vs Paide II — Esiliiga A 2026

K-Järve JK Järve
K-Järve JK Järve
FT
2 – 5
HT: 2 – 4
Paide II
Paide II
8/5/2023Esiliiga AEsiliiga A · Round 22Kiviõli Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

K-Järve JK Järve30%
×Draw20%
Paide II50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

K-Järve JK Järve
1.77
Paide II
2.31

Paide II creates 31% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 63 away

creates per match

K-Järve JK Järve
1.14
Paide II
1.97

allows per match

K-Järve JK Järve
2.65
Paide II
2.40

finishing

K-Järve JK Järve+0.00on par
Paide II+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

K-Järve JK Järve ↓

Paide II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

K-Järve JK Järve or draw
50%
K-Järve JK Järve or Paide II
80%
Draw or Paide II
70%

Winning margin

K-Järve JK Järve wins by 2+
15%
Paide II wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

K-Järve JK Järve 1+ goals
83%
K-Järve JK Järve 2+ goals
53%
K-Järve JK Järve 3+ goals
26%
Paide II 1+ goals
90%
Paide II 2+ goals
67%
Paide II 3+ goals
40%

Draw no bet

K-Järve JK Järve (draw refunded)
38%
Paide II (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

K-Järve JK Järve at home — creates 1.14, concedes 2.65 · 71 matches

Paide II away — creates 1.97, concedes 2.40 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

K-Järve JK Järve attack 1.14 + Paide II defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.77

Paide II attack 1.97 + K-Järve JK Järve defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 2.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

K-Järve JK Järve scores more
30%
level
20%
Paide II scores more
50%

Paide II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Paide II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Esiliiga A: K-Järve JK Järve 2–5 Paide II

Paide II beat K-Järve JK Järve 5-2 in Esiliiga A on August 5, 2023.

The match was played at Kiviõli Arena in Kiviõli.