Pahang 1–1 Kuala Lumpur FA: Result & Stats

Pahang

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Kuala Lumpur FA

S. Brundo 80' (pen)

D. Kenny Pallraj 45'

1/26/2025

League #278 · Round 19Stadium Majlis Perbandaran Temerloh

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Pahang27%

×Draw37%

Kuala Lumpur FA36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PahangExpected goals in this matchKuala Lumpur FA

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.67

0.83

Pahang

0.67

Kuala Lumpur FA

0.83

Kuala Lumpur FA creates 24% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

0.67

creates per match

0.33

1.33

allows per match

0.67

creates per match

Pahang

0.67

Kuala Lumpur FA

0.33

allows per match

Pahang

1.33

Kuala Lumpur FA

0.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pahang+0.00on par

Kuala Lumpur FA+0.00on par

Total goals

Under81
Over19

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No72
Yes28

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pahang ↓

Kuala Lumpur FA →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–022%

0–119%

0–28%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–05%

2–14%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (22%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

78%22%1.5

44%56%2.5

19%81%3.5

7%93%4.5

2%98%

Double chance

Pahang or draw

64%

Pahang or Kuala Lumpur FA

63%

Draw or Kuala Lumpur FA

73%

Winning margin

Pahang wins by 2+

8%

Kuala Lumpur FA wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Pahang 1+ goals

49%

Pahang 2+ goals

15%

Pahang 3+ goals

3%

Kuala Lumpur FA 1+ goals

56%

Kuala Lumpur FA 2+ goals

20%

Kuala Lumpur FA 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Pahang (draw refunded)

43%

Kuala Lumpur FA (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

15%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pahang at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Kuala Lumpur FA away — creates 0.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pahang attack 0.67 + Kuala Lumpur FA defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.67

Kuala Lumpur FA attack 0.33 + Pahang defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Pahang scores more

27%

level

37%

Kuala Lumpur FA scores more

36%

Kuala Lumpur FA at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Kuala Lumpur FA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

R. Lambert

45'

D. Kenny Pallraj

48'

E. Aguero

50'

Arif Shaqirin← G. Gallifuoco

66'

J. Motika

67'

Haqimi Azim Rosli← Paulo Josué

69'

Baqiuddin Shamsudin← M. Ahapov

69'

S. Brundo← S. Sean Eugene

69'

David Rowley← Azam Azih

80'

S. BrundoPenalty

87'

Mahalli Jasuli← J. Partiban

89'

Saiful Jamaluddin← Ibrahim Manusi

90+3'

M. S. Jamaluddin

90+6'

H. Rosli

Pahang

Kuala

22

Hakim

9

▼

Gallifuoc

21

⚽

5

4

11

16

▼

8

7

6

28

▼

1

29

5

3

6

30

▼

Manusi

20

▼

Azih

11

▼

Ahapov

16

Agüero

7

▼

Eugene

88

Hidalgo

Manager: F. Ahmad

69'▲Baqiuddin Shamsudin←▼M. Ahapov

69'▲S. Brundo←▼S. Sean Eugene

69'▲David Rowley←▼Azam Azih

89'▲Saiful Jamaluddin←▼Ibrahim Manusi

Pahang substitutes

12Shamsudin15Brundo55Rowley33Jamaluddin4Ahmad18Arif26Saravanan27Shas44Zaim

Manager: M. Kuljanac

50'▲Arif Shaqirin←▼G. Gallifuoco

67'▲Haqimi Azim Rosli←▼Paulo Josué

87'▲Mahalli Jasuli←▼J. Partiban

Kuala Lumpur FA substitutes

29Shaqirin37Rosli18Jasuli1Green20Aiman42Abu66Hakim70Mizei77Sharvin