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Pahang vs Kuala Lumpur FA — Malaysia Cup 2019

Pahang
Pahang
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Kuala Lumpur FA
Kuala Lumpur FA
9/24/2023Malaysia CupMalaysia Cup · Quarter-finalsStadium Darulmakmur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Pahang47%
×Draw22%
Kuala Lumpur FA30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pahang
1.90
Kuala Lumpur FA
1.48

Pahang creates 28% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 14 away

creates per match

Pahang
2.15
Kuala Lumpur FA
1.43

allows per match

Pahang
1.54
Kuala Lumpur FA
1.64

finishing

Pahang+0.00on par
Kuala Lumpur FA+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pahang ↓

Kuala Lumpur FA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Pahang or draw
70%
Pahang or Kuala Lumpur FA
78%
Draw or Kuala Lumpur FA
53%

Winning margin

Pahang wins by 2+
26%
Kuala Lumpur FA wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Pahang 1+ goals
85%
Pahang 2+ goals
56%
Pahang 3+ goals
29%
Kuala Lumpur FA 1+ goals
77%
Kuala Lumpur FA 2+ goals
43%
Kuala Lumpur FA 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Pahang (draw refunded)
61%
Kuala Lumpur FA (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pahang at home — creates 2.15, concedes 1.54 · 13 matches

Kuala Lumpur FA away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.64 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pahang attack 2.15 + Kuala Lumpur FA defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.90

Kuala Lumpur FA attack 1.43 + Pahang defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Pahang scores more
47%
level
22%
Kuala Lumpur FA scores more
30%

Pahang at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Pahang will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Malaysia Cup: Pahang 1–1 Kuala Lumpur FA

Pahang and Kuala Lumpur FA drew 1-1 in Malaysia Cup on September 24, 2023.

The match was played at Stadium Darulmakmur in Kuantan.