Paganese 1–0 Lupa Roma: Result & Stats

Paganese

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Lupa Roma

12/11/2022

Serie D - Girone G · Group G - 15Stadio Marcello Torre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Paganese49%

×Draw30%

Lupa Roma21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PaganeseExpected goals in this matchLupa Roma

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

0.68

Paganese

1.22

Lupa Roma

0.68

Paganese creates 79% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 17 away

1.50

creates per match

0.82

0.53

allows per match

0.94

creates per match

Paganese

1.50

Lupa Roma

0.82

allows per match

Paganese

0.53

Lupa Roma

0.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Paganese+0.00on par

Lupa Roma+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paganese ↓

Lupa Roma →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–110%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Paganese or draw

79%

Paganese or Lupa Roma

70%

Draw or Lupa Roma

51%

Winning margin

Paganese wins by 2+

22%

Lupa Roma wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Paganese 1+ goals

70%

Paganese 2+ goals

34%

Paganese 3+ goals

12%

Lupa Roma 1+ goals

49%

Lupa Roma 2+ goals

15%

Lupa Roma 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Paganese (draw refunded)

70%

Lupa Roma (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paganese at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.53 · 34 matches

Lupa Roma away — creates 0.82, concedes 0.94 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paganese attack 1.50 + Lupa Roma defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.22

Lupa Roma attack 0.82 + Paganese defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Paganese scores more

49%

level

30%

Lupa Roma scores more

21%

Paganese at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Paganese will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff