Lupa Roma 1–1 Paganese: Result & Stats

Lupa Roma

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Paganese

M. Persano 12'

S. D'Agostino 43'

4/23/2023

Serie D - Girone G · Group G - 32Stadio Comunale 8 Settembre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Lupa Roma46%

×Draw26%

Paganese27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lupa RomaExpected goals in this matchPaganese

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.06

Lupa Roma

1.46

Paganese

1.06

Lupa Roma creates 38% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 34 away

1.76

creates per match

1.35

0.76

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Lupa Roma

1.76

Paganese

1.35

allows per match

Lupa Roma

0.76

Paganese

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lupa Roma+0.00on par

Paganese+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lupa Roma ↓

Paganese →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Lupa Roma or draw

73%

Lupa Roma or Paganese

74%

Draw or Paganese

54%

Winning margin

Lupa Roma wins by 2+

23%

Paganese wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Lupa Roma 1+ goals

77%

Lupa Roma 2+ goals

43%

Lupa Roma 3+ goals

18%

Paganese 1+ goals

65%

Paganese 2+ goals

29%

Paganese 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Lupa Roma (draw refunded)

63%

Paganese (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lupa Roma at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.76 · 17 matches

Paganese away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.15 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lupa Roma attack 1.76 + Paganese defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.46

Paganese attack 1.35 + Lupa Roma defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Lupa Roma scores more

46%

level

26%

Paganese scores more

27%

Lupa Roma at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Lupa Roma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

M. Persano

43'

S. D'Agostino

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff