Pafos 2–0 Omonia Aradippou: Result & Stats

Pafos

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Omonia Aradippou

Jaja 90'

J. Correia 11'

1/12/2026

1. Division · Round 17Stelios Kyriakides Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Pafos62%

×Draw23%

Omonia Aradippou16%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PafosExpected goals in this matchOmonia Aradippou

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

0.79

Pafos

1.81

Omonia Aradippou

0.79

Pafos creates 129% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 17 away

2.38

creates per match

0.76

0.81

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Pafos

2.38

Omonia Aradippou

0.76

allows per match

Pafos

0.81

Omonia Aradippou

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pafos+0.00on par

Omonia Aradippou+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pafos ↓

Omonia Aradippou →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Pafos or draw

84%

Pafos or Omonia Aradippou

77%

Draw or Omonia Aradippou

38%

Winning margin

Pafos wins by 2+

36%

Omonia Aradippou wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Pafos 1+ goals

84%

Pafos 2+ goals

54%

Pafos 3+ goals

27%

Omonia Aradippou 1+ goals

55%

Omonia Aradippou 2+ goals

19%

Omonia Aradippou 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Pafos (draw refunded)

79%

Omonia Aradippou (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pafos at home — creates 2.38, concedes 0.81 · 26 matches

Omonia Aradippou away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pafos attack 2.38 + Omonia Aradippou defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.81

Omonia Aradippou attack 0.76 + Pafos defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Pafos scores more

62%

level

23%

Omonia Aradippou scores more

16%

Pafos at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Pafos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

93

N. Michail

Pafos · G

8.0

Match Events

11'

J. Correia

53'

Minas Antoniou

64'

L. Dimata← Anderson Silva

64'

Jaja← K. Sema

68'

Stavros Georgiou

76'

P. Zachariou← G. Pontikos

80'

João Correia

81'

K. Mekkaoui← P. Polykarpou

81'

S. Olamilekan Fatai← J. Mouaddib

82'

D. Quina← M. Orsic

87'

K. Evripidou← C. Kallis

90+1'

K. Pileas← V. Dragomir

90'

Jaja

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PafosOmonia

Overview

65%Possession35%

15Total Shots11

3.57Expected Goals (xG)1.17

3Corners1

17Fouls8

Shots

15Total Shots11

6On Target5

7Off Target4

2Blocked2

12Inside Box3

3Outside Box8

Passing

65%Possession35%

594Total Passes252

530Accurate Passes200

89%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

5Saves4

Discipline

17Fouls8

1Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

2Offsides1

1. Division: Pafos 2–0 Omonia Aradippou

Pafos beat Omonia Aradippou 2-0 in 1. Division on January 12, 2026.

Goals: J. Correia (11'), Jaja (90').

Pafos controlled possession (65%) and registered 15 shots to 11.

The match was played at Stelios Kyriakides Stadium in Pafos.

Pafos vs Omonia Aradippou — 1. Division 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

1. Division: Pafos 2–0 Omonia Aradippou