Omonia Aradippou 0–2 Pafos: Result & Stats

Omonia Aradippou

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Pafos

V. Dragomir 56'

Anderson Silva 18'

2/8/2025

1. Division · Round 22Stadio Antonis Papadopoulos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Omonia Aradippou28%

×Draw25%

Pafos47%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Omonia AradippouExpected goals in this matchPafos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.56

Omonia Aradippou

1.15

Pafos

1.56

Pafos creates 36% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 24 away

1.05

creates per match

1.58

1.55

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Omonia Aradippou

1.05

Pafos

1.58

allows per match

Omonia Aradippou

1.55

Pafos

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Omonia Aradippou+0.00on par

Pafos+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Omonia Aradippou ↓

Pafos →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Omonia Aradippou or draw

53%

Omonia Aradippou or Pafos

75%

Draw or Pafos

72%

Winning margin

Omonia Aradippou wins by 2+

11%

Pafos wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Omonia Aradippou 1+ goals

68%

Omonia Aradippou 2+ goals

32%

Omonia Aradippou 3+ goals

11%

Pafos 1+ goals

79%

Pafos 2+ goals

46%

Pafos 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Omonia Aradippou (draw refunded)

38%

Pafos (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Omonia Aradippou at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.55 · 20 matches

Pafos away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.25 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Omonia Aradippou attack 1.05 + Pafos defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.15

Pafos attack 1.58 + Omonia Aradippou defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Omonia Aradippou scores more

28%

level

25%

Pafos scores more

47%

Pafos at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Pafos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

Anderson Silva

27'

Saná Gomes

28'

Anderson SilvaMissed penalty

46'

Z. Šarlija← M. Boukamir

56'

V. Dragomir

61'

Bourama Fomba

61'

Bourama Fomba

64'

Jairo← Pêpê Rodrigues

64'

Jajá← Bruno Felipe

64'

K. Sema← J. Silva

65'

João Sidónio← N. Koutsakos

75'

Derrick Luckassen

75'

M. Ilia← Anderson Silva

81'

C. Kallis← M. Touré

81'

Mika Borges← S. Vrontis

84'

Karim Mekkaoui← Jorginho

90+1'

Zvonimir Šarlija

Omonia4-1-3-2

Pafos4-3-3

77

Correia

33

⚽

▼

Silva

17

Oršić

88

▼

Rodrigues

30

⚽

Dragomir

16

Tanlongo

19

▼

Silva

32

▼

Boukamir

23

Luckassen

7

▼

93

1

92

62

33

17

8

73

▼

Jorginho

6

▼

Vrontis

21

▼

Touré

89

▼

Koutsakos

30

Ferrier

Manager: Hugo Martins

65'▲João Sidónio←▼N. Koutsakos

81'▲C. Kallis←▼M. Touré

81'▲Mika Borges←▼S. Vrontis

84'▲Karim Mekkaoui←▼Jorginho

Omonia Aradippou substitutes

43Sidónio4Kallis27Borges11Mekkaoui7Pontikos15Shatla18Christodoulou29Kattirtzis37Loizou70Peixoto88Papacharalambous90Moreira

Manager: Carcedo

46'▲Z. Šarlija←▼M. Boukamir

64'▲Jairo←▼Pêpê Rodrigues

64'▲Jajá←▼Bruno Felipe

64'▲K. Sema←▼J. Silva

75'▲M. Ilia←▼Anderson Silva

Pafos substitutes

21Šarlija10Jairo11Jajá12Sema70Ilia1Ivušić2Pileas5Goldar8Quina22Tanković99Papadoudis