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Pafos vs FK Crvena Zvezda — UEFA Champions League 2026

Pafos
Pafos
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
FK Crvena Zvezda
FK Crvena Zvezda
Jaja 89'
M. Ivanic 60'
8/26/2025UEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League · Play-offsAlphamega Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Pafos29%
×Draw25%
FK Crvena Zvezda46%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pafos
1.19
FK Crvena Zvezda
1.55

FK Crvena Zvezda creates 30% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 3 away

creates per match

Pafos
1.71
FK Crvena Zvezda
1.67

allows per match

Pafos
1.43
FK Crvena Zvezda
0.67

finishing

Pafos+0.00on par
FK Crvena Zvezda+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pafos ↓

FK Crvena Zvezda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Pafos or draw
54%
Pafos or FK Crvena Zvezda
75%
Draw or FK Crvena Zvezda
71%

Winning margin

Pafos wins by 2+
12%
FK Crvena Zvezda wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Pafos 1+ goals
70%
Pafos 2+ goals
33%
Pafos 3+ goals
12%
FK Crvena Zvezda 1+ goals
79%
FK Crvena Zvezda 2+ goals
46%
FK Crvena Zvezda 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Pafos (draw refunded)
39%
FK Crvena Zvezda (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pafos at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

FK Crvena Zvezda away — creates 1.67, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pafos attack 1.71 + FK Crvena Zvezda defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.19

FK Crvena Zvezda attack 1.67 + Pafos defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Pafos scores more
29%
level
25%
FK Crvena Zvezda scores more
46%

FK Crvena Zvezda at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "FK Crvena Zvezda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'
Miloš Veljković
33'
Rade Krunić
53'
Shavy Warren Babicka
56'
N. Radonjic← S. Babicka
56'
M. Arnautovic← Bruno Duarte
60'
M. Ivanic↳ C. Ndiaye
62'
Jaja← M. Orsic
62'
B. Langa← K. Pileas
68'
M. Bassouamina← Anderson Silva
79'
Jajá
86'
Bruno
89'
Jaja↳ Pepe
90+8'
Pêpê
90+5'
Pedrao← Bruno
90+1'
A. Katai← T. Elsnik
90+1'
P. Olayinka← M. Ivanic

Possession

50%Pafos

Shots

11Pafos

Pass accuracy

49%Pafos

Statistics

PafosFK
Overview
50%Possession50%
11Total Shots12
3Corners3
17Fouls17
Shots
11Total Shots12
5On Target3
5Off Target4
1Blocked5
8Inside Box9
3Outside Box3
Passing
50%Possession50%
355Total Passes352
279Accurate Passes286
79%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
1Saves4
Discipline
17Fouls17
3Yellow Cards3
1Offsides3

Match Recap: Pafos vs FK Crvena Zvezda

Pafos and FK Crvena Zvezda drew 1-1 in UEFA Champions League on August 26, 2025.

Goals: M. Ivanic (60'), Jaja (89').

Pafos controlled possession (50%) and registered 11 shots to 12.

The match was played at Alphamega Stadium in Limassol.