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FK Crvena Zvezda vs Pafos — UEFA Champions League 2026

FK Crvena Zvezda
FK Crvena Zvezda
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Pafos
Pafos
Bruno Duarte 58'
Pepe 52' (pen)
J. Correia 1'
8/19/2025UEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League · Play-offsStadion Rajko Mit

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

FK Crvena Zvezda49%
×Draw27%
Pafos25%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Crvena Zvezda
1.45
Pafos
0.95

FK Crvena Zvezda creates 53% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

creates per match

FK Crvena Zvezda
2.33
Pafos
0.57

allows per match

FK Crvena Zvezda
1.33
Pafos
0.57

finishing

FK Crvena Zvezda+0.00on par
Pafos+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Crvena Zvezda ↓

Pafos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

FK Crvena Zvezda or draw
75%
FK Crvena Zvezda or Pafos
73%
Draw or Pafos
51%

Winning margin

FK Crvena Zvezda wins by 2+
24%
Pafos wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

FK Crvena Zvezda 1+ goals
77%
FK Crvena Zvezda 2+ goals
42%
FK Crvena Zvezda 3+ goals
18%
Pafos 1+ goals
61%
Pafos 2+ goals
25%
Pafos 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

FK Crvena Zvezda (draw refunded)
66%
Pafos (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Crvena Zvezda at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Pafos away — creates 0.57, concedes 0.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Crvena Zvezda attack 2.33 + Pafos defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 1.45

Pafos attack 0.57 + FK Crvena Zvezda defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

FK Crvena Zvezda scores more
49%
level
27%
Pafos scores more
25%

FK Crvena Zvezda at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "FK Crvena Zvezda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'
J. Correia↳ M. Tankovic
17'
K. Sema← M. Tankovic
31'
BrunoGoal cancelled
32'
Bruno Duarte← P. Olayinka
52'
PepePenalty
56'
Bruno DuartePenalty confirmed
58'
Bruno Duarte
69'
A. Katai← M. Bajo
73'
Jaja← J. Correia
73'
B. Langa← K. Pileas
73'
M. Ilia← Anderson Silva
77'
Mirko Ivanić
77'
Mirko IvanićPenalty cancelled
84'
M. Orsic←
87'
Bruno Langa
87'
Milson← S. Babicka

Possession

57%FK

Shots

25FK

Pass accuracy

51%FK

Statistics

FKPafos
Overview
57%Possession43%
25Total Shots14
13Corners4
9Fouls17
Shots
25Total Shots14
6On Target3
13Off Target7
6Blocked4
19Inside Box8
6Outside Box6
Passing
57%Possession43%
395Total Passes323
316Accurate Passes247
80%Pass Accuracy76%
Goalkeeping
1Saves5
Discipline
9Fouls17
1Yellow Cards1

Match Recap: FK Crvena Zvezda vs Pafos

Pafos beat FK Crvena Zvezda 2-1 in UEFA Champions League on August 19, 2025.

Goals: J. Correia (1'), Pepe (52' pen), Bruno Duarte (58').

FK Crvena Zvezda controlled possession (57%) and registered 25 shots to 14.

The match was played at Stadion Rajko Mit in Belgrade.