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Padova vs Monza — Serie B 2018

Padova
Padova
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Monza
Monza
M. Bortolussi 17' (pen)
A. Alvarez 87'
A. Colpani 45'
2/1/2026Serie BSerie B · Round 22Stadio Euganeo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Padova32%
×Draw27%
Monza41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Padova
1.14
Monza
1.34

Monza creates 18% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

creates per match

Padova
1.10
Monza
1.25

allows per match

Padova
1.43
Monza
1.18

finishing

Padova-0.30scores less
Monza+0.50scores more

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Padova ↓

Monza →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Padova or draw
59%
Padova or Monza
73%
Draw or Monza
68%

Winning margin

Padova wins by 2+
13%
Monza wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Padova 1+ goals
68%
Padova 2+ goals
32%
Padova 3+ goals
11%
Monza 1+ goals
74%
Monza 2+ goals
39%
Monza 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Padova (draw refunded)
43%
Monza (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Padova at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.43 · 5 matches

Monza away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.18 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Padova attack 1.10 + Monza defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.14

Monza attack 1.25 + Padova defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Padova scores more
32%
level
27%
Monza scores more
41%

Monza at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Monza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28
A. ColpaniMonzaMonza · F
8.3

Match Events

15'
Arvid Brorsson
17'
M. BortolussiPenalty
24'
Marco Perrotta
39'
Carlo Faedo
45'
A. Colpani↳ S. Birindelli
46'
L. Villa← M. Perrotta
63'
K. Lasagna← Papu Gomez
65'
P. Cutrone← D. Mota
65'
G. Caso← P. Obiang
67'
K. Varas← L. Di Maggio
74'
Filippo Sgarbi
83'
Mattia BortolussiGoal cancelled
84'
A. Alvarez← A. Brorsson
84'
P. Ciurria← Hernani
87'
A. Alvarez↳ P. Ciurria
90'
J. Silva← J. Harder
90'
F. Di Mariano← A. Barreca
90'
L. Lucchesi← A. Colpani

Possession

38%Padova

Shots

19Padova

Pass accuracy

47%Padova

Statistics

PadovaMonza
Overview
38%Possession62%
19Total Shots19
3Corners9
16Fouls9
Shots
19Total Shots19
1On Target8
10Off Target5
8Blocked6
12Inside Box10
7Outside Box9
Passing
38%Possession62%
324Total Passes534
249Accurate Passes462
77%Pass Accuracy87%
Goalkeeping
6Saves0
Discipline
16Fouls9
3Yellow Cards1
2Offsides0

Padova 1 – 2 Monza

Monza beat Padova 2-1 in Serie B on February 1, 2026.

Goals: M. Bortolussi (17' pen), A. Colpani (45'), A. Alvarez (87').

Monza controlled possession (62%) and registered 19 shots to 19.

The match was played at Stadio Euganeo in Padova.