Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Monza vs Padova — Serie B 2018

Monza
Monza
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Padova
Padova
K. Varas 51'
9/27/2025Serie BSerie B · Round 5Brianteo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Monza55%
×Draw24%
Padova20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Monza
1.67
Padova
0.91

Monza creates 84% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 35 away

creates per match

Monza
1.71
Padova
1.06

allows per match

Monza
0.76
Padova
1.63

finishing

Monza+0.00on par
Padova+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monza ↓

Padova →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Monza or draw
80%
Monza or Padova
76%
Draw or Padova
45%

Winning margin

Monza wins by 2+
30%
Padova wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Monza 1+ goals
81%
Monza 2+ goals
50%
Monza 3+ goals
23%
Padova 1+ goals
60%
Padova 2+ goals
23%
Padova 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Monza (draw refunded)
73%
Padova (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monza at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.76 · 62 matches

Padova away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.63 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monza attack 1.71 + Padova defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.67

Padova attack 1.06 + Monza defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Monza scores more
55%
level
24%
Padova scores more
20%

Monza at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Monza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
K. VarasPadovaPadova · M
8.3

Match Events

49'
Marco Perrotta
51'
K. Varas
52'
Samuele Birindelli
57'
K. Zeroli← L. Colombo
57'
N. Galazzi← A. Colpani
59'
C. Buonaiuto← K. Lasagna
66'
Lorenzo Crisetig
66'
G. Caprari← A. Alvarez
66'
A. Petagna← M. Maric
69'
Kevin ZeroliGoal cancelled
74'
L. Di Maggio← L. Crisetig
75'
J. Harder← K. Varas
81'
G. Favale← A. Barreca
82'
A. Carboni← L. Lucchesi

Possession

62%Monza

Shots

13Monza

Pass accuracy

52%Monza

Statistics

MonzaPadova
Overview
62%Possession38%
13Total Shots13
7Corners3
10Fouls12
Shots
13Total Shots13
4On Target5
4Off Target6
5Blocked2
9Inside Box7
4Outside Box6
Passing
62%Possession38%
560Total Passes357
477Accurate Passes277
85%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
4Saves4
Discipline
10Fouls12
1Yellow Cards2
3Offsides1

Serie B: Monza 0–1 Padova

Padova beat Monza 1-0 in Serie B on September 27, 2025.

Goals: K. Varas (51').

Monza controlled possession (62%) and registered 13 shots to 13.

The match was played at Brianteo in Monza.