Padova 2–0 Modena: Result & Stats | Serie B

Padova

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Modena

K. Lasagna 90'

M. Bortolussi 11'

1/11/2026

Serie B · Round 19Stadio Euganeo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Padova29%

×Draw27%

Modena44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PadovaExpected goals in this matchModena

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

1.39

Padova

1.06

Modena

1.39

Modena creates 31% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

1.02

creates per match

1.15

1.62

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Padova

1.02

Modena

1.15

allows per match

Padova

1.62

Modena

1.09

-0.02on par

finishing

-0.37scores less than expected

finishing

Padova-0.02on par

Modena-0.37scores less

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Padova ↓

Modena →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Padova or draw

56%

Padova or Modena

73%

Draw or Modena

71%

Winning margin

Padova wins by 2+

11%

Modena wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Padova 1+ goals

65%

Padova 2+ goals

29%

Padova 3+ goals

9%

Modena 1+ goals

75%

Modena 2+ goals

40%

Modena 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Padova (draw refunded)

39%

Modena (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Padova at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.62 · 6 matches

Modena away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.09 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Padova attack 1.02 + Modena defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.06

Modena attack 1.15 + Padova defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Padova scores more

29%

level

27%

Modena scores more

44%

Modena at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Modena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

A. Sorrentino

Padova · G

8.3

Match Events

11'

M. Bortolussi↳ A. Capelli

26'

Marco Perrotta

34'

Davide Adorni

57'

Francesco Belli

62'

M. De Luca← F. Di Mariano

65'

A. Dellavalle← D. Adorni

65'

G. Beyuku← L. Zanimacchia

68'

L. Villa← F. Belli

78'

A. Seghetti← Papu Gomez

78'

K. Lasagna← M. Bortolussi

78'

N. Pyyhtia← S. Santoro

78'

P. Mendes← E. Gliozzi

79'

L. Crisetig← J. Harder

85'

Paolo Ghiglione

88'

C. Faedo← P. Ghiglione

90+3'

Kevin LasagnaGoal confirmed

90'

K. Lasagna↳ K. Varas

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PadovaModena

Overview

36%Possession64%

8Total Shots32

0.64Expected Goals (xG)2.54

3Corners12

11Fouls13

Shots

8Total Shots32

6On Target6

0Off Target14

2Blocked12

4Inside Box19

4Outside Box13

Passing

36%Possession64%

285Total Passes492

200Accurate Passes418

70%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

6Saves4

Discipline

11Fouls13

3Yellow Cards1

3Offsides3

Serie B: Padova 2–0 Modena

Padova beat Modena 2-0 in Serie B on January 11, 2026.

Goals: M. Bortolussi (11'), K. Lasagna (90').

Modena controlled possession (64%) and registered 32 shots to 8.

The match was played at Stadio Euganeo in Padova.

Padova vs Modena — Serie B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Padova 2–0 Modena