Modena 1–2 Padova: Result & Stats | Serie B

Modena

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Padova

L. Zanimacchia 56'

C. Faedo 14'

K. Lasagna 8'

2/28/2026

Serie B · Round 27Stadio Alberto Braglia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Modena46%

×Draw26%

Padova27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ModenaExpected goals in this matchPadova

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.06

Modena

1.46

Padova

1.06

Modena creates 38% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 35 away

1.30

creates per match

1.06

1.05

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Modena

1.30

Padova

1.06

allows per match

Modena

1.05

Padova

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Modena+0.00on par

Padova+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Modena ↓

Padova →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Modena or draw

73%

Modena or Padova

74%

Draw or Padova

54%

Winning margin

Modena wins by 2+

23%

Padova wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Modena 1+ goals

77%

Modena 2+ goals

43%

Modena 3+ goals

18%

Padova 1+ goals

65%

Padova 2+ goals

29%

Padova 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Modena (draw refunded)

63%

Padova (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Modena at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.05 · 77 matches

Padova away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.63 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Modena attack 1.30 + Padova defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.46

Padova attack 1.06 + Modena defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Modena scores more

46%

level

26%

Padova scores more

27%

Modena at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Modena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

98

L. Zanimacchia

Modena · M

8.0

Match Events

5'

L. Crisetig← J. Harder

8'

K. Lasagna↳ F. Di Mariano

14'

C. Faedo↳ C. Buonaiuto

28'

Y. Massolin← G. Beyuku

44'

Cristian Buonaiuto

51'

Yanis Massolin

53'

E. Gliozzi← G. Ambrosino

54'

M. Cotali← B. Nieling

56'

L. Zanimacchia↳ E. Gliozzi

60'

L. Di Maggio← C. Buonaiuto

68'

L. Villa← C. Pastina

68'

G. Caprari← K. Lasagna

68'

J. Silva← F. Di Mariano

73'

G. Defrel← F. Zampano

73'

A. Imputato← M. De Luca

74'

Mattia Fortin

89'

Steven Nador

90+1'

Kevin Varas Marcillo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ModenaPadova

Overview

60%Possession40%

12Total Shots6

0.38Expected Goals (xG)0.56

5Corners3

13Fouls13

Shots

12Total Shots6

5On Target3

4Off Target2

3Blocked1

6Inside Box3

6Outside Box3

Passing

60%Possession40%

461Total Passes318

382Accurate Passes240

83%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

-0.60Goals Prevented-0.60

Discipline

13Fouls13

2Yellow Cards3

0Offsides1

Serie B: Modena 1–2 Padova

Padova beat Modena 2-1 in Serie B on February 28, 2026.

Goals: K. Lasagna (8'), C. Faedo (14'), L. Zanimacchia (56').

Modena controlled possession (60%) and registered 12 shots to 6.

The match was played at Stadio Alberto Braglia in Modena.

Modena vs Padova — Serie B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Modena 1–2 Padova