Padova 3–0 Hellas Verona: Result & Stats | Serie B

Padova

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Hellas Verona

M. Morganella 68'

J. Mbakogu 53', 13'

1/20/2019

Serie B · Round 20Stadio Comunale Euganeo (Padova)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Padova35%

×Draw29%

Hellas Verona35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PadovaExpected goals in this matchHellas Verona

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

Padova

1.10

Hellas Verona

1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 37 home / 20 away

0.95

creates per match

1.20

1.00

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Padova

0.95

Hellas Verona

1.20

allows per match

Padova

1.00

Hellas Verona

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Padova+0.00on par

Hellas Verona+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Padova ↓

Hellas Verona →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Padova or draw

65%

Padova or Hellas Verona

71%

Draw or Hellas Verona

65%

Winning margin

Padova wins by 2+

14%

Hellas Verona wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Padova 1+ goals

67%

Padova 2+ goals

30%

Padova 3+ goals

10%

Hellas Verona 1+ goals

67%

Hellas Verona 2+ goals

30%

Hellas Verona 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Padova (draw refunded)

50%

Hellas Verona (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Padova at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.00 · 37 matches

Hellas Verona away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.25 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Padova attack 0.95 + Hellas Verona defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.10

Hellas Verona attack 1.20 + Padova defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Padova scores more

35%

level

29%

Hellas Verona scores more

35%

Padova at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Padova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

J. Mbakogu↳ A. Longhi

24'

Simone Calvano

40'

Michel Morganella

45'

Luca Marrone

53'

J. Mbakogu↳ F. Bonazzoli

57'

Ľ. Tupta← L. Henderson

68'

M. Morganella

72'

D. Cappelletti← S. Calvano

75'

Pawel Dawidowicz

78'

A. Capello← J. Mbakogu

83'

K. Cissé← J. Balkovec

86'

L. Lollo← J. Broh

89'

S. Colombatto← Ryder Matos

90'

Alessandro Longhi

Padova

Hellas

1

Silvestri

5

Faraoni

15

▼

27

6

21

4

▼

20

8

11

7

▼

Matos

1

Minelli

17

⚽

3

5

36

32

A

Longhi

7

Pulzetti

8

▼

Calvano

15

▼

Broh

9

⚽2

▼

Mbakogu

27

A

Bonazzoli

Manager: P. Bisoli

72'▲D. Cappelletti←▼S. Calvano

78'▲A. Capello←▼J. Mbakogu

86'▲L. Lollo←▼J. Broh

Padova substitutes

23Cappelletti28Capello11Lollo6Ceccaroni12Favaro14Zambataro18Mazzocco21Marcandella22Merelli25Belingheri38Clemenza

Manager: F. Grosso

57'▲Ľ. Tupta←▼L. Henderson

83'▲K. Cissé←▼J. Balkovec

89'▲S. Colombatto←▼Ryder Matos

Hellas Verona substitutes

28Tupta19Cissé14Colombatto3Eguelfi10Carmine12Ferrari24Kumbulla26Berardi29Almici30Bianchetti33Empereur