Hellas Verona 1–1 Padova: Result & Stats | Serie B

Hellas Verona

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Padova

A. Almici 23'

L. Ravanelli 36'

8/26/2018

Serie B · Round 1Marc'Antonio Bentegodi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Hellas Verona49%

×Draw25%

Padova27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hellas VeronaExpected goals in this matchPadova

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.14

Hellas Verona

1.63

Padova

1.14

Hellas Verona creates 43% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 37 away

1.60

creates per match

1.08

1.20

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Hellas Verona

1.60

Padova

1.08

allows per match

Hellas Verona

1.20

Padova

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hellas Verona+0.00on par

Padova+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hellas Verona ↓

Padova →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Hellas Verona or draw

73%

Hellas Verona or Padova

75%

Draw or Padova

51%

Winning margin

Hellas Verona wins by 2+

26%

Padova wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Hellas Verona 1+ goals

80%

Hellas Verona 2+ goals

48%

Hellas Verona 3+ goals

22%

Padova 1+ goals

68%

Padova 2+ goals

32%

Padova 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Hellas Verona (draw refunded)

65%

Padova (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hellas Verona at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.20 · 20 matches

Padova away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.65 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hellas Verona attack 1.60 + Padova defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.63

Padova attack 1.08 + Hellas Verona defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Hellas Verona scores more

49%

level

25%

Padova scores more

27%

Hellas Verona at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Hellas Verona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'

A. Almici

36'

L. Ravanelli↳ L. Clemenza

42'

Daniel Cappelletti

44'

Federico Bonazzoli

56'

Samuel Gustafson← A. Ragusa

57'

M. Zaccagni← L. Henderson

70'

L. Belingheri← A. Capello

72'

Alberto Almici

74'

Luca Ravanelli

76'

Alessandro Crescenzi

84'

G. Pazzini← Ryder Matos

84'

M. Guidone← F. Bonazzoli

90'

J. Broh← L. Clemenza

Possession

Shots

Statistics

HellasPadova

Overview

63%Possession37%

8Total Shots7

5Corners4

13Fouls20

Shots

8Total Shots7

5On Target3

3Off Target4

Passing

63%Possession37%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

13Fouls20

2Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

1Offsides5