Padova 0–1 Frosinone: Result & Stats | Serie B

Padova

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Frosinone

G. Bracaglia 37'

9/13/2025

Serie B · Round 3Stadio Euganeo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Padova33%

×Draw24%

Frosinone43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PadovaExpected goals in this matchFrosinone

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.63

Padova

1.41

Frosinone

1.63

Frosinone creates 16% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 9 away

1.08

creates per match

1.75

1.51

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Padova

1.08

Frosinone

1.75

allows per match

Padova

1.51

Frosinone

1.74

-0.08on par

finishing

+0.25scores more than expected

finishing

Padova-0.08on par

Frosinone+0.25scores more

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Padova ↓

Frosinone →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Padova or draw

57%

Padova or Frosinone

76%

Draw or Frosinone

67%

Winning margin

Padova wins by 2+

15%

Frosinone wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Padova 1+ goals

76%

Padova 2+ goals

41%

Padova 3+ goals

17%

Frosinone 1+ goals

80%

Frosinone 2+ goals

48%

Frosinone 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Padova (draw refunded)

44%

Frosinone (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Padova at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.51 · 11 matches

Frosinone away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.74 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Padova attack 1.08 + Frosinone defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.41

Frosinone attack 1.75 + Padova defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Padova scores more

33%

level

24%

Frosinone scores more

43%

Frosinone at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Frosinone will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

79

G. Bracaglia

Frosinone · D

8.0

Match Events

25'

B. L. Kone← F. Gelli

37'

G. Bracaglia↳ M. Zilli

43'

Giorgio Cittadini

45+2'

Antonio Barreca

46'

A. Oyono← G. Cittadini

56'

A. Raimondo← M. Zilli

65'

L. Di Maggio← J. Harder

66'

C. Buonaiuto← L. Crisetig

71'

G. Favale← A. Barreca

71'

M. Cichella← F. Ghedjemis

71'

G. Kvernadze←

76'

Gabriele Bracaglia

77'

J. Silva← C. Faedo

90+3'

Marco PerrottaPenalty cancelled

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PadovaFrosinone

Overview

55%Possession45%

10Total Shots13

6Corners4

11Fouls16

Shots

10Total Shots13

5On Target4

4Off Target9

1Blocked0

5Inside Box8

5Outside Box5

Passing

55%Possession45%

435Total Passes356

356Accurate Passes286

82%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

11Fouls16

1Yellow Cards2

2Offsides2