Frosinone 2–0 Padova: Result & Stats | Serie B

Frosinone

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Padova

F. Gelli 29'

A. Raimondo 25'

4/5/2026

Serie B · Round 33Stadio Benito Stirpe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Frosinone59%

×Draw22%

Padova19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FrosinoneExpected goals in this matchPadova

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

0.98

Frosinone

1.89

Padova

0.98

Frosinone creates 93% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 5 away

1.91

creates per match

0.80

1.17

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Frosinone

1.91

Padova

0.80

allows per match

Frosinone

1.17

Padova

1.86

+0.59scores more than expected

finishing

+0.40scores more than expected

finishing

Frosinone+0.59scores more

Padova+0.40scores more

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frosinone ↓

Padova →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Frosinone or draw

81%

Frosinone or Padova

78%

Draw or Padova

41%

Winning margin

Frosinone wins by 2+

34%

Padova wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Frosinone 1+ goals

85%

Frosinone 2+ goals

56%

Frosinone 3+ goals

29%

Padova 1+ goals

62%

Padova 2+ goals

26%

Padova 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Frosinone (draw refunded)

75%

Padova (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frosinone at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

Padova away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.86 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frosinone attack 1.91 + Padova defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.89

Padova attack 0.80 + Frosinone defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Frosinone scores more

59%

level

22%

Padova scores more

19%

Frosinone at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Frosinone will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

F. Gelli

Frosinone · M

8.5

Match Events

25'

A. Raimondo

29'

F. Gelli↳ I. Monterisi

46'

L. Crisetig← J. Harder

46'

A. Capelli← F. Belli

58'

K. Varas← P. Fusi

58'

G. Favale← P. Ghiglione

62'

Lorenzo Crisetig

69'

Francesco Gelli

71'

A. Seghetti← F. Di Mariano

74'

A. Fiori← G. Kvernadze

74'

S. Fini← F. Ghedjemis

80'

M. Zilli← A. Raimondo

80'

J. Oyono← A. Oyono

87'

G. Cittadini← F. Gelli

88'

Kevin Varas Marcillo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FrosinonePadova

Overview

63%Possession37%

24Total Shots11

2.64Expected Goals (xG)0.91

7Corners5

10Fouls15

Shots

24Total Shots11

8On Target2

8Off Target6

8Blocked3

18Inside Box8

6Outside Box3

Passing

63%Possession37%

431Total Passes250

335Accurate Passes162

78%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

2Saves6

0.74Goals Prevented0.74

Discipline

10Fouls15

1Yellow Cards2

2Offsides2