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Padova vs Foggia — Serie B 2018

Padova
Padova
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Foggia
Foggia
A. Capello 89'
Lucas Chiaretti 45'
2/16/2019Serie BSerie B · Round 24Stadio Euganeo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Padova42%
×Draw28%
Foggia30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Padova
1.29
Foggia
1.04

Padova creates 24% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 25 away

creates per match

Padova
0.97
Foggia
1.04

allows per match

Padova
1.03
Foggia
1.60

finishing

Padova+0.00on par
Foggia+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Padova ↓

Foggia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Padova or draw
70%
Padova or Foggia
72%
Draw or Foggia
58%

Winning margin

Padova wins by 2+
19%
Foggia wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Padova 1+ goals
72%
Padova 2+ goals
37%
Padova 3+ goals
14%
Foggia 1+ goals
65%
Foggia 2+ goals
28%
Foggia 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Padova (draw refunded)
58%
Foggia (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Padova at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.03 · 36 matches

Foggia away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.60 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Padova attack 0.97 + Foggia defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.29

Foggia attack 1.04 + Padova defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Padova scores more
42%
level
28%
Foggia scores more
30%

Padova at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Padova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'
Lucas Chiaretti
45'
Lucas Chiaretti↳ F. Mazzeo
46'
A. Capello← L. Clemenza
62'
Y. Baraye← M. Morganella
62'
A. Gerbo← F. Deli
65'
C. Agnelli← L. Greco
68'
Yves Baraye
69'
Alessandro Capello
76'
E. Zambataro← D. Marcandella
79'
P. Iemmello← F. Mazzeo
89'
A. Capello

Possession

40%Padova

Shots

11Padova

Statistics

PadovaFoggia
Overview
40%Possession60%
11Total Shots4
5Corners8
22Fouls15
Shots
11Total Shots4
5On Target4
6Off Target0
Passing
40%Possession60%
Goalkeeping
3Saves4
Discipline
22Fouls15
2Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0
0Offsides2

Serie B: Padova 1–1 Foggia

Padova and Foggia drew 1-1 in Serie B on February 16, 2019.

Goals: Lucas Chiaretti (45'), A. Capello (89').

Foggia controlled possession (60%) and registered 4 shots to 11.

The match was played at Stadio Euganeo in Padova.