Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Foggia vs Padova — Serie B 2018

Foggia
Foggia
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Padova
Padova
E. Cicerelli 85'
O. Kragl 62'
D. Mazzocco 8'
9/26/2018Serie BSerie B · Round 5Stadio Pino Zaccheria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Foggia50%
×Draw24%
Padova26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Foggia
1.68
Padova
1.13

Foggia creates 49% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 35 away

creates per match

Foggia
1.73
Padova
1.06

allows per match

Foggia
1.19
Padova
1.63

finishing

Foggia+0.00on par
Padova+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Foggia ↓

Padova →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Foggia or draw
74%
Foggia or Padova
76%
Draw or Padova
50%

Winning margin

Foggia wins by 2+
27%
Padova wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Foggia 1+ goals
81%
Foggia 2+ goals
50%
Foggia 3+ goals
24%
Padova 1+ goals
68%
Padova 2+ goals
31%
Padova 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Foggia (draw refunded)
66%
Padova (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Foggia at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.19 · 26 matches

Padova away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.63 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Foggia attack 1.73 + Padova defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.68

Padova attack 1.06 + Foggia defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Foggia scores more
50%
level
24%
Padova scores more
26%

Foggia at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Foggia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
D. Mazzocco↳ S. Contessa
16'
Vincenzo Sarno
55'
Luca Martinelli
57'
E. Cicerelli← M. Busellato
57'
J. Broh← V. Sarno
62'
O. Kragl↳ F. Deli
67'
Daniele Capelli
68'
L. Clemenza← F. Bonazzoli
72'
Oliver Kragl
74'
L. Rizzo← F. Deli
75'
N. Pulzetti← L. Belingheri
85'
E. Cicerelli
86'
Cristian Galano
89'
M. Zambelli← C. Galano
90'
Nico Pulzetti

Possession

65%Foggia

Shots

14Foggia

Statistics

FoggiaPadova
Overview
65%Possession35%
14Total Shots4
4Corners2
26Fouls21
Shots
14Total Shots4
8On Target3
6Off Target1
Passing
65%Possession35%
Goalkeeping
2Saves7
Discipline
26Fouls21
3Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards0
4Offsides4

Serie B: Foggia 2–1 Padova

Foggia beat Padova 2-1 in Serie B on September 26, 2018.

Goals: D. Mazzocco (8'), O. Kragl (62'), E. Cicerelli (85').

Foggia controlled possession (65%) and registered 14 shots to 4.

The match was played at Stadio Pino Zaccheria in Foggia.