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Padova vs Cremonese — Serie B 2018

Padova
Padova
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Cremonese
Cremonese
9/23/2018Serie BSerie B · Round 4Stadio Euganeo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Padova34%
×Draw29%
Cremonese37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Padova
1.08
Cremonese
1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 36 home / 115 away

creates per match

Padova
0.97
Cremonese
1.23

allows per match

Padova
1.03
Cremonese
1.20

finishing

Padova+0.00on par
Cremonese+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Padova ↓

Cremonese →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Padova or draw
63%
Padova or Cremonese
71%
Draw or Cremonese
66%

Winning margin

Padova wins by 2+
14%
Cremonese wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Padova 1+ goals
66%
Padova 2+ goals
29%
Padova 3+ goals
10%
Cremonese 1+ goals
68%
Cremonese 2+ goals
31%
Cremonese 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Padova (draw refunded)
48%
Cremonese (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Padova at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.03 · 36 matches

Cremonese away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.20 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Padova attack 0.97 + Cremonese defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.08

Cremonese attack 1.23 + Padova defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Padova scores more
34%
level
29%
Cremonese scores more
37%

Cremonese at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Cremonese will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Padova vs Cremonese

Padova and Cremonese drew 1-1 in Serie B on September 23, 2018.

The match was played at Stadio Euganeo in Padova.