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Cremonese vs Padova — Serie B 2018

Cremonese
Cremonese
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Padova
Padova
2/9/2019Serie BSerie B · Round 23Stadio Giovanni Zini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Cremonese50%
×Draw26%
Padova24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cremonese
1.52
Padova
0.97

Cremonese creates 57% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 35 away

creates per match

Cremonese
1.41
Padova
1.06

allows per match

Cremonese
0.87
Padova
1.63

finishing

Cremonese+0.00on par
Padova+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cremonese ↓

Padova →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Cremonese or draw
76%
Cremonese or Padova
74%
Draw or Padova
50%

Winning margin

Cremonese wins by 2+
25%
Padova wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Cremonese 1+ goals
78%
Cremonese 2+ goals
45%
Cremonese 3+ goals
20%
Padova 1+ goals
62%
Padova 2+ goals
25%
Padova 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Cremonese (draw refunded)
67%
Padova (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cremonese at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.87 · 113 matches

Padova away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.63 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cremonese attack 1.41 + Padova defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.52

Padova attack 1.06 + Cremonese defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Cremonese scores more
50%
level
26%
Padova scores more
24%

Cremonese at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Cremonese will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

-5'
Davide Merelli
39'
Michel Morganella
44'
Siniša Anđelković
45'
Reda Boultam
46'
Mariano Arini
46'
M. Carretta← R. Boultam
55'
Nicolò Cherubin
74'
D. Marcandella← J. Mbakogu
76'
J. Broh← A. Capello
80'
S. Longo← A. Piccolo

Possession

62%Cremonese

Shots

13Cremonese

Statistics

CremonesePadova
Overview
62%Possession38%
13Total Shots7
5Corners1
23Fouls18
Shots
13Total Shots7
7On Target3
6Off Target4
Passing
62%Possession38%
Goalkeeping
3Saves7
Discipline
23Fouls18
2Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards1
2Offsides1

Match Recap: Cremonese vs Padova

Cremonese and Padova drew 0-0 in Serie B on February 9, 2019.

Cremonese controlled possession (62%) and registered 13 shots to 7.

The match was played at Stadio Giovanni Zini in Cremona.