Padova 0–0 Cittadella: Result & Stats | Serie B

Padova

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Cittadella

11/3/2018

Serie B · Round 11Stadio Euganeo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Padova38%

×Draw31%

Cittadella32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PadovaExpected goals in this matchCittadella

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

0.96

Padova

1.07

Cittadella

0.96

Padova creates 11% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 134 away

0.95

creates per match

0.92

1.00

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Padova

0.95

Cittadella

0.92

allows per match

Padova

1.00

Cittadella

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Padova+0.00on par

Cittadella+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Padova ↓

Cittadella →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Padova or draw

68%

Padova or Cittadella

69%

Draw or Cittadella

62%

Winning margin

Padova wins by 2+

15%

Cittadella wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Padova 1+ goals

66%

Padova 2+ goals

29%

Padova 3+ goals

9%

Cittadella 1+ goals

62%

Cittadella 2+ goals

25%

Cittadella 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Padova (draw refunded)

54%

Cittadella (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Padova at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.00 · 37 matches

Cittadella away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.19 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Padova attack 0.95 + Cittadella defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.07

Cittadella attack 0.92 + Padova defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Padova scores more

38%

level

31%

Cittadella scores more

32%

Padova at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Padova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff