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Cittadella vs Padova — Serie B 2018

Cittadella
Cittadella
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Padova
Padova
3/30/2019Serie BSerie B · Round 30Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato (Cittadella)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Cittadella46%
×Draw26%
Padova28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cittadella
1.46
Padova
1.09

Cittadella creates 34% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 37 away

creates per match

Cittadella
1.27
Padova
1.08

allows per match

Cittadella
1.10
Padova
1.65

finishing

Cittadella+0.00on par
Padova+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cittadella ↓

Padova →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Cittadella or draw
72%
Cittadella or Padova
74%
Draw or Padova
54%

Winning margin

Cittadella wins by 2+
22%
Padova wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Cittadella 1+ goals
77%
Cittadella 2+ goals
43%
Cittadella 3+ goals
18%
Padova 1+ goals
66%
Padova 2+ goals
30%
Padova 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Cittadella (draw refunded)
62%
Padova (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cittadella at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.10 · 135 matches

Padova away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.65 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cittadella attack 1.27 + Padova defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.46

Padova attack 1.08 + Cittadella defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Cittadella scores more
46%
level
26%
Padova scores more
28%

Cittadella at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Cittadella will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie B: Cittadella 1–1 Padova

Cittadella and Padova drew 1-1 in Serie B on March 30, 2019.

The match was played at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato (Cittadella).