Padova 1–1 Cesena: Result & Stats | Serie B

Padova

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Cesena

K. Varas 90'

E. Adamo 75'

12/8/2025

Serie B · Round 15Stadio Euganeo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Padova42%

×Draw28%

Cesena30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PadovaExpected goals in this matchCesena

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.02

Padova

1.27

Cesena

1.02

Padova creates 25% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 45 away

0.97

creates per match

1.00

1.03

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Padova

0.97

Cesena

1.00

allows per match

Padova

1.03

Cesena

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Padova+0.00on par

Cesena+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Padova ↓

Cesena →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Padova or draw

70%

Padova or Cesena

72%

Draw or Cesena

58%

Winning margin

Padova wins by 2+

19%

Cesena wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Padova 1+ goals

72%

Padova 2+ goals

36%

Padova 3+ goals

14%

Cesena 1+ goals

64%

Cesena 2+ goals

27%

Cesena 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Padova (draw refunded)

59%

Cesena (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Padova at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.03 · 36 matches

Cesena away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.56 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Padova attack 0.97 + Cesena defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.27

Cesena attack 1.00 + Padova defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Padova scores more

42%

level

28%

Cesena scores more

30%

Padova at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Padova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

K. Varas

Padova · M

7.9

Match Events

24'

Massimiliano Mangraviti

36'

Jonas Harder

46'

A. Capelli← J. Harder

51'

Michele Castagnetti

57'

Papu Gomez← C. Buonaiuto

57'

J. Blesa← M. Olivieri

58'

T. Berti← S. Bastoni

65'

Antonio Barreca

72'

E. Adamo← G. Frabotta

75'

E. Adamo↳ T. Berti

77'

A. Seghetti← A. Barreca

77'

G. Favale← P. Ghiglione

84'

K. Varas← L. Villa

87'

Pietro FusiPenalty cancelled

88'

89'

90+5'

90+1'

90+1'

D. Bisoli← M. Francesconi

90'

K. Varas↳ L. Crisetig

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PadovaCesena

Overview

52%Possession48%

8Total Shots15

2Corners4

8Fouls17

Shots

8Total Shots15

3On Target4

2Off Target11

3Blocked0

4Inside Box8

4Outside Box7

Passing

52%Possession48%

563Total Passes509

476Accurate Passes442

85%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

8Fouls17

3Yellow Cards4

2Offsides1

Serie B: Padova 1–1 Cesena

Padova and Cesena drew 1-1 in Serie B on December 8, 2025.

Goals: E. Adamo (75'), K. Varas (90').

Padova controlled possession (52%) and registered 8 shots to 15.

The match was played at Stadio Euganeo in Padova.

Padova vs Cesena — Serie B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Padova 1–1 Cesena