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Padova vs Cesena — League #942 2026

Padova
Padova
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Cesena
Cesena
2/28/2021League #942League #942 · Girone B - 27Stadio Comunale Euganeo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Padova59%
×Draw25%
Cesena16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Padova
1.60
Cesena
0.70

Padova creates 129% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

Padova
1.80
Cesena
0.80

allows per match

Padova
0.60
Cesena
1.40

finishing

Padova+0.00on par
Cesena+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Padova ↓

Cesena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Padova or draw
84%
Padova or Cesena
75%
Draw or Cesena
41%

Winning margin

Padova wins by 2+
32%
Cesena wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Padova 1+ goals
80%
Padova 2+ goals
47%
Padova 3+ goals
22%
Cesena 1+ goals
50%
Cesena 2+ goals
16%
Cesena 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Padova (draw refunded)
78%
Cesena (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Padova at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

Cesena away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Padova attack 1.80 + Cesena defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.60

Cesena attack 0.80 + Padova defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Padova scores more
59%
level
25%
Cesena scores more
16%

Padova at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Padova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #942: Padova 0–0 Cesena

Padova and Cesena drew 0-0 in League #942 on February 28, 2021.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Euganeo in Padova.