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Padova vs Bari — Serie B 2018

Padova
Padova
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Bari
Bari
F. Di Mariano 13'
K. Piscopo 45'
2/21/2026Serie BSerie B · Round 26Stadio Euganeo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Padova47%
×Draw26%
Bari27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Padova
1.48
Bari
1.07

Padova creates 38% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 14 away

creates per match

Padova
1.10
Bari
0.72

allows per match

Padova
1.43
Bari
1.86

finishing

Padova-0.30scores less
Bari+0.07on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Padova ↓

Bari →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Padova or draw
73%
Padova or Bari
74%
Draw or Bari
53%

Winning margin

Padova wins by 2+
23%
Bari wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Padova 1+ goals
77%
Padova 2+ goals
43%
Padova 3+ goals
19%
Bari 1+ goals
66%
Bari 2+ goals
29%
Bari 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Padova (draw refunded)
63%
Bari (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Padova at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.43 · 5 matches

Bari away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.86 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Padova attack 1.10 + Bari defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.48

Bari attack 0.72 + Padova defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Padova scores more
47%
level
26%
Bari scores more
27%

Padova at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Padova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

77
F. Di MarianoPadovaPadova · M
7.9

Match Events

13'
F. Di Mariano↳ C. Buonaiuto
32'
Giulio Maggiore
39'
Andrea Cistana
45'
Antonio Barreca
45'
K. Piscopo↳ N. Cavuoti
48'
Pietro Fusi
56'
Kevin Piscopo
63'
K. Varas← A. Capelli
63'
G. De Pieri← N. Cavuoti
69'
G. Caprari← C. Buonaiuto
78'
T. Esteves← E. Rao
78'
D. Traore← G. Maggiore
78'
M. Cuni← G. Moncini
82'
K. Lasagna← M. Bortolussi
82'
L. Di Maggio← P. Fusi
90+3'
Marco Perrotta
90'
Marvin Çuni

Possession

55%Padova

Shots

9Padova

Pass accuracy

49%Padova

Statistics

PadovaBari
Overview
55%Possession45%
9Total Shots17
0.95Expected Goals (xG)1.59
9Corners3
19Fouls15
Shots
9Total Shots17
5On Target4
4Off Target7
0Blocked6
6Inside Box11
3Outside Box6
Passing
55%Possession45%
442Total Passes369
359Accurate Passes307
81%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
3Saves4
0.47Goals Prevented0.47
Discipline
19Fouls15
3Yellow Cards4
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Padova vs Bari

Padova and Bari drew 1-1 in Serie B on February 21, 2026.

Goals: F. Di Mariano (13'), K. Piscopo (45').

Padova controlled possession (55%) and registered 9 shots to 17.

The match was played at Stadio Euganeo in Padova.