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Bari vs Padova — Serie B 2018

Bari
Bari
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Padova
Padova
L. Cerri 84'
G. Moncini 71' (pen)
M. Bortolussi 50'
10/4/2025Serie BSerie B · Round 7Stadio San Nicola

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Bari46%
×Draw26%
Padova28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bari
1.44
Padova
1.07

Bari creates 35% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 35 away

creates per match

Bari
1.26
Padova
1.06

allows per match

Bari
1.08
Padova
1.63

finishing

Bari+0.00on par
Padova+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bari ↓

Padova →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Bari or draw
72%
Bari or Padova
74%
Draw or Padova
54%

Winning margin

Bari wins by 2+
22%
Padova wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Bari 1+ goals
76%
Bari 2+ goals
42%
Bari 3+ goals
18%
Padova 1+ goals
66%
Padova 2+ goals
29%
Padova 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Bari (draw refunded)
62%
Padova (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bari at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.08 · 91 matches

Padova away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.63 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bari attack 1.26 + Padova defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.44

Padova attack 1.06 + Bari defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Bari scores more
46%
level
26%
Padova scores more
28%

Bari at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Bari will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

31
M. CerofoliniBariBari · G
8.2

Match Events

16'
S. Kassama← D. Nikolaou
28'
Emanuele Rao
46'
G. Moncini← C. Gytkjaer
46'
M. Dorval← R. Burgio
50'
M. Bortolussi↳ A. Capelli
56'
Gaetano Castrovilli
64'
L. Cerri← M. Antonucci
69'
Alessandro Capelli
71'
G. MonciniPenalty
73'
P. Ghiglione← M. Bortolussi
73'
J. Harder← L. Crisetig
77'
G. Pereiro← E. Rao
81'
L. Di Maggio← P. Fusi
81'
G. Favale← A. Barreca
84'
L. Cerri↳ M. Dorval
86'
C. Buonaiuto← C. Faedo

Possession

50%Bari

Shots

15Bari

Pass accuracy

50%Bari

Statistics

BariPadova
Overview
50%Possession50%
15Total Shots17
7Corners7
12Fouls16
Shots
15Total Shots17
5On Target7
4Off Target6
6Blocked4
7Inside Box12
8Outside Box5
Passing
50%Possession50%
412Total Passes418
343Accurate Passes344
83%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
6Saves3
Discipline
12Fouls16
2Yellow Cards0
0Red Cards1
0Offsides2

Bari 2 – 1 Padova

Bari beat Padova 2-1 in Serie B on October 4, 2025.

Goals: M. Bortolussi (50'), G. Moncini (71' pen), L. Cerri (84').

Bari controlled possession (50%) and registered 15 shots to 17.

The match was played at Stadio San Nicola in Bari.