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Padova vs Avellino — Serie B 2018

Padova
Padova
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Avellino
Avellino
C. Buonaiuto 29'
F. Sgarbi 9'
F. Lescano 44'
T. Biasci 31'
9/30/2025Serie BSerie B · Round 6Stadio Euganeo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Padova41%
×Draw28%
Avellino31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Padova
1.29
Avellino
1.08

Padova creates 19% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 12 away

creates per match

Padova
1.03
Avellino
0.59

allows per match

Padova
1.58
Avellino
1.54

finishing

Padova-0.03on par
Avellino+0.08on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Padova ↓

Avellino →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Padova or draw
69%
Padova or Avellino
72%
Draw or Avellino
59%

Winning margin

Padova wins by 2+
19%
Avellino wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Padova 1+ goals
72%
Padova 2+ goals
37%
Padova 3+ goals
14%
Avellino 1+ goals
66%
Avellino 2+ goals
29%
Avellino 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Padova (draw refunded)
57%
Avellino (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Padova at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.58 · 8 matches

Avellino away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.54 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Padova attack 1.03 + Avellino defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.29

Avellino attack 0.59 + Padova defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Padova scores more
41%
level
28%
Avellino scores more
31%

Padova at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Padova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

32
F. SgarbiPadovaPadova · D
8.2

Match Events

9'
F. Sgarbi↳ G. Favale
29'
C. Buonaiuto↳ K. Varas
31'
T. Biasci↳ F. Lescano
44'
F. Lescano↳ F. Missori
54'
Giulio Favale
56'
A. Barreca← G. Favale
57'
K. Lasagna← C. Buonaiuto
62'
M. Besaggio← R. Insigne
73'
V. Crespi← F. Lescano
73'
R. Russo← F. Missori
77'
L. Crisetig← P. Fusi
77'
L. Di Maggio← K. Varas
82'
L. Simic← T. Cancellotti
83'
M. Palumbo← L. Palmiero
84'
J. Silva← J. Harder
85'
Luca Di Maggio
89'
Raffaele Russo

Possession

45%Padova

Shots

11Padova

Pass accuracy

50%Padova

Statistics

PadovaAvellino
Overview
45%Possession55%
11Total Shots12
4Corners1
14Fouls13
Shots
11Total Shots12
3On Target5
3Off Target3
5Blocked4
8Inside Box4
3Outside Box8
Passing
45%Possession55%
478Total Passes593
412Accurate Passes509
86%Pass Accuracy86%
Goalkeeping
3Saves1
Discipline
14Fouls13
2Yellow Cards1
1Offsides0

Match Recap: Padova vs Avellino

Padova and Avellino drew 2-2 in Serie B on September 30, 2025.

Goals: F. Sgarbi (9'), C. Buonaiuto (29'), T. Biasci (31'), F. Lescano (44').

Avellino controlled possession (55%) and registered 12 shots to 11.

The match was played at Stadio Euganeo in Padova.