Avellino 1–0 Padova: Result & Stats | Serie B

Avellino

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Padova

R. Russo 90'

3/7/2026

Serie B · Round 29Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Avellino55%

×Draw23%

Padova22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AvellinoExpected goals in this matchPadova

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.07

Avellino

1.81

Padova

1.07

Avellino creates 69% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 8 away

1.57

creates per match

0.91

1.23

allows per match

2.05

creates per match

Avellino

1.57

Padova

0.91

allows per match

Avellino

1.23

Padova

2.05

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

+0.09on par

finishing

Avellino-0.13scores less

Padova+0.09on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avellino ↓

Padova →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Avellino or draw

78%

Avellino or Padova

77%

Draw or Padova

45%

Winning margin

Avellino wins by 2+

31%

Padova wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Avellino 1+ goals

84%

Avellino 2+ goals

54%

Avellino 3+ goals

27%

Padova 1+ goals

66%

Padova 2+ goals

29%

Padova 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Avellino (draw refunded)

71%

Padova (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avellino at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.23 · 9 matches

Padova away — creates 0.91, concedes 2.05 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avellino attack 1.57 + Padova defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.81

Padova attack 0.91 + Avellino defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Avellino scores more

55%

level

23%

Padova scores more

22%

Avellino at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Avellino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

A. Izzo

Avellino · D

8.0

Match Events

18'

L. Villa← F. Sgarbi

25'

Armando Izzo

45+3'

Cosimo Patierno

46'

G. Giunti← L. Crisetig

46'

L. Di Maggio← C. Buonaiuto

46'

49'

53'

54'

64'

66'

R. Russo← C. Patierno

79'

R. Insigne← D. Sounas

79'

P. Enrici← A. Izzo

82'

K. Varas← K. Lasagna

90'

R. Russo↳ P. Enrici

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AvellinoPadova

Overview

62%Possession38%

19Total Shots6

1.75Expected Goals (xG)0.60

9Corners3

12Fouls16

Shots

19Total Shots6

5On Target1

9Off Target3

5Blocked2

13Inside Box3

6Outside Box3

Passing

62%Possession38%

518Total Passes326

437Accurate Passes247

84%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

0.15Goals Prevented0.15

Discipline

12Fouls16

3Yellow Cards3

3Offsides0

Serie B: Avellino 1–0 Padova

Avellino beat Padova 1-0 in Serie B on March 7, 2026.

Goals: R. Russo (90').

Avellino controlled possession (62%) and registered 19 shots to 6.

The match was played at Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi in Avellino.

Avellino vs Padova — Serie B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Avellino 1–0 Padova