Padova U19 0–3 Cremonese U19: Result & Stats

Padova U19

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Cremonese U19

3/9/2024

Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group A - 22Stadio Silvio Appiani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Padova U1923%

×Draw24%

Cremonese U1954%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Padova U19Expected goals in this matchCremonese U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

1.76

Padova U19

1.05

Cremonese U19

1.76

Cremonese U19 creates 68% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 55 away

1.28

creates per match

1.96

1.56

allows per match

0.82

creates per match

Padova U19

1.28

Cremonese U19

1.96

allows per match

Padova U19

1.56

Cremonese U19

0.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Padova U19+0.00on par

Cremonese U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Padova U19 ↓

Cremonese U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–111%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Padova U19 or draw

46%

Padova U19 or Cremonese U19

76%

Draw or Cremonese U19

77%

Winning margin

Padova U19 wins by 2+

8%

Cremonese U19 wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Padova U19 1+ goals

65%

Padova U19 2+ goals

28%

Padova U19 3+ goals

9%

Cremonese U19 1+ goals

83%

Cremonese U19 2+ goals

52%

Cremonese U19 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Padova U19 (draw refunded)

29%

Cremonese U19 (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Padova U19 at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.56 · 61 matches

Cremonese U19 away — creates 1.96, concedes 0.82 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Padova U19 attack 1.28 + Cremonese U19 defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.05

Cremonese U19 attack 1.96 + Padova U19 defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Padova U19 scores more

23%

level

24%

Cremonese U19 scores more

54%

Cremonese U19 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Cremonese U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff