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Cremonese U19 vs Padova U19 — Campionato Primavera - 2 2020

Cremonese U19
Cremonese U19
FT
5 – 1
Padova U19
Padova U19
9/23/2023Campionato Primavera - 2Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group A - 2Campo Amadio Soldi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Cremonese U1954%
×Draw22%
Padova U1925%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cremonese U19
2.02
Padova U19
1.31

Cremonese U19 creates 54% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 61 away

creates per match

Cremonese U19
2.31
Padova U19
0.98

allows per match

Cremonese U19
1.65
Padova U19
1.74

finishing

Cremonese U19+0.00on par
Padova U19+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cremonese U19 ↓

Padova U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Cremonese U19 or draw
75%
Cremonese U19 or Padova U19
78%
Draw or Padova U19
46%

Winning margin

Cremonese U19 wins by 2+
31%
Padova U19 wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Cremonese U19 1+ goals
87%
Cremonese U19 2+ goals
60%
Cremonese U19 3+ goals
33%
Padova U19 1+ goals
73%
Padova U19 2+ goals
38%
Padova U19 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Cremonese U19 (draw refunded)
68%
Padova U19 (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cremonese U19 at home — creates 2.31, concedes 1.65 · 54 matches

Padova U19 away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.74 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cremonese U19 attack 2.31 + Padova U19 defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 2.02

Padova U19 attack 0.98 + Cremonese U19 defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Cremonese U19 scores more
54%
level
22%
Padova U19 scores more
25%

Cremonese U19 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Cremonese U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cremonese U19 vs Padova U19

Cremonese U19 beat Padova U19 5-1 in Campionato Primavera - 2 on September 23, 2023.

The match was played at Campo Amadio Soldi in Cremona.