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Padinska Skela vs Buducnost Dobanovci — Srpska Liga - Belgrade 2019

Padinska Skela
Padinska Skela
FT
1 – 1
Buducnost Dobanovci
Buducnost Dobanovci
8/13/2023Srpska Liga - BelgradeSrpska Liga - Belgrade · Belgrade - 1Stadion FK PKB Padinska Skela

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Padinska Skela43%
×Draw27%
Buducnost Dobanovci30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Padinska Skela
1.37
Buducnost Dobanovci
1.08

Padinska Skela creates 27% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 43 away

creates per match

Padinska Skela
1.36
Buducnost Dobanovci
1.09

allows per match

Padinska Skela
1.07
Buducnost Dobanovci
1.37

finishing

Padinska Skela+0.00on par
Buducnost Dobanovci+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Padinska Skela ↓

Buducnost Dobanovci →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Padinska Skela or draw
70%
Padinska Skela or Buducnost Dobanovci
73%
Draw or Buducnost Dobanovci
57%

Winning margin

Padinska Skela wins by 2+
20%
Buducnost Dobanovci wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Padinska Skela 1+ goals
75%
Padinska Skela 2+ goals
40%
Padinska Skela 3+ goals
16%
Buducnost Dobanovci 1+ goals
66%
Buducnost Dobanovci 2+ goals
29%
Buducnost Dobanovci 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Padinska Skela (draw refunded)
59%
Buducnost Dobanovci (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Padinska Skela at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.07 · 28 matches

Buducnost Dobanovci away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.37 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Padinska Skela attack 1.36 + Buducnost Dobanovci defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.37

Buducnost Dobanovci attack 1.09 + Padinska Skela defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Padinska Skela scores more
43%
level
27%
Buducnost Dobanovci scores more
30%

Padinska Skela at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Padinska Skela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Padinska Skela vs Buducnost Dobanovci

Padinska Skela and Buducnost Dobanovci drew 1-1 in Srpska Liga - Belgrade on August 13, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion FK PKB Padinska Skela in Padinska Skela.