Buducnost Dobanovci 2–0 Padinska Skela

Buducnost Dobanovci

FT

2 – 0

Padinska Skela

3/2/2024

Srpska Liga - Belgrade · Belgrade - 16Stadion FK Budućnost

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Buducnost Dobanovci51%

×Draw25%

Padinska Skela25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Buducnost DobanovciExpected goals in this matchPadinska Skela

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.06

Buducnost Dobanovci

1.63

Padinska Skela

1.06

Buducnost Dobanovci creates 54% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 27 away

1.47

creates per match

1.00

1.12

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Buducnost Dobanovci

1.47

Padinska Skela

1.00

allows per match

Buducnost Dobanovci

1.12

Padinska Skela

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Buducnost Dobanovci+0.00on par

Padinska Skela+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Buducnost Dobanovci ↓

Padinska Skela →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Buducnost Dobanovci or draw

75%

Buducnost Dobanovci or Padinska Skela

75%

Draw or Padinska Skela

49%

Winning margin

Buducnost Dobanovci wins by 2+

27%

Padinska Skela wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Buducnost Dobanovci 1+ goals

80%

Buducnost Dobanovci 2+ goals

48%

Buducnost Dobanovci 3+ goals

22%

Padinska Skela 1+ goals

65%

Padinska Skela 2+ goals

29%

Padinska Skela 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Buducnost Dobanovci (draw refunded)

67%

Padinska Skela (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Buducnost Dobanovci at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.12 · 43 matches

Padinska Skela away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.78 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Buducnost Dobanovci attack 1.47 + Padinska Skela defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.63

Padinska Skela attack 1.00 + Buducnost Dobanovci defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Buducnost Dobanovci scores more

51%

level

25%

Padinska Skela scores more

25%

Buducnost Dobanovci at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Buducnost Dobanovci will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff