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Padideh Khorasan vs Mes Rafsanjan — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018

Padideh Khorasan
Padideh Khorasan
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Mes Rafsanjan
Mes Rafsanjan
2/12/2022Persian Gulf Pro LeaguePersian Gulf Pro League · Round 17Samen Al-Aeme Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Padideh Khorasan40%
×Draw32%
Mes Rafsanjan28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Padideh Khorasan
1.06
Mes Rafsanjan
0.83

Padideh Khorasan creates 28% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 86 away

creates per match

Padideh Khorasan
1.00
Mes Rafsanjan
0.93

allows per match

Padideh Khorasan
0.73
Mes Rafsanjan
1.13

finishing

Padideh Khorasan+0.00on par
Mes Rafsanjan+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Padideh Khorasan ↓

Mes Rafsanjan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Padideh Khorasan or draw
72%
Padideh Khorasan or Mes Rafsanjan
68%
Draw or Mes Rafsanjan
60%

Winning margin

Padideh Khorasan wins by 2+
16%
Mes Rafsanjan wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Padideh Khorasan 1+ goals
65%
Padideh Khorasan 2+ goals
29%
Padideh Khorasan 3+ goals
9%
Mes Rafsanjan 1+ goals
56%
Mes Rafsanjan 2+ goals
20%
Mes Rafsanjan 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Padideh Khorasan (draw refunded)
59%
Mes Rafsanjan (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Padideh Khorasan at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.73 · 60 matches

Mes Rafsanjan away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.13 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Padideh Khorasan attack 1.00 + Mes Rafsanjan defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.06

Mes Rafsanjan attack 0.93 + Padideh Khorasan defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Padideh Khorasan scores more
40%
level
32%
Mes Rafsanjan scores more
28%

Padideh Khorasan at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Padideh Khorasan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Persian Gulf Pro League: Padideh Khorasan 1–3 Mes Rafsanjan

Mes Rafsanjan beat Padideh Khorasan 3-1 in Persian Gulf Pro League on February 12, 2022.

The match was played at Samen Al-Aeme Stadium in Mashhad.