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Mes Rafsanjan vs Padideh Khorasan — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018

Mes Rafsanjan
Mes Rafsanjan
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Padideh Khorasan
Padideh Khorasan
7/25/2021Persian Gulf Pro LeaguePersian Gulf Pro League · Round 29Shohadaye Noushabad Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Mes Rafsanjan39%
×Draw32%
Padideh Khorasan29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mes Rafsanjan
1.02
Padideh Khorasan
0.83

Mes Rafsanjan creates 23% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 58 away

creates per match

Mes Rafsanjan
0.91
Padideh Khorasan
0.72

allows per match

Mes Rafsanjan
0.94
Padideh Khorasan
1.14

finishing

Mes Rafsanjan+0.00on par
Padideh Khorasan+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mes Rafsanjan ↓

Padideh Khorasan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Mes Rafsanjan or draw
71%
Mes Rafsanjan or Padideh Khorasan
68%
Draw or Padideh Khorasan
61%

Winning margin

Mes Rafsanjan wins by 2+
15%
Padideh Khorasan wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Mes Rafsanjan 1+ goals
64%
Mes Rafsanjan 2+ goals
27%
Mes Rafsanjan 3+ goals
8%
Padideh Khorasan 1+ goals
56%
Padideh Khorasan 2+ goals
20%
Padideh Khorasan 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Mes Rafsanjan (draw refunded)
58%
Padideh Khorasan (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mes Rafsanjan at home — creates 0.91, concedes 0.94 · 85 matches

Padideh Khorasan away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.14 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mes Rafsanjan attack 0.91 + Padideh Khorasan defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.02

Padideh Khorasan attack 0.72 + Mes Rafsanjan defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Mes Rafsanjan scores more
39%
level
32%
Padideh Khorasan scores more
29%

Mes Rafsanjan at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Mes Rafsanjan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Persian Gulf Pro League: Mes Rafsanjan 2–1 Padideh Khorasan

Mes Rafsanjan beat Padideh Khorasan 2-1 in Persian Gulf Pro League on July 25, 2021.

The match was played at Shohadaye Noushabad Stadium in Rafsanjan.