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Padideh Khorasan vs Gol Gohar — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018

Padideh Khorasan
Padideh Khorasan
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Gol Gohar
Gol Gohar
12/10/2021Persian Gulf Pro LeaguePersian Gulf Pro League · Round 9Samen Al-Aeme Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Padideh Khorasan38%
×Draw33%
Gol Gohar29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Padideh Khorasan
0.96
Gol Gohar
0.80

Padideh Khorasan creates 20% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 101 away

creates per match

Padideh Khorasan
1.00
Gol Gohar
0.88

allows per match

Padideh Khorasan
0.73
Gol Gohar
0.91

finishing

Padideh Khorasan+0.00on par
Gol Gohar+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Padideh Khorasan ↓

Gol Gohar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–114%
0–26%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
26%74%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Padideh Khorasan or draw
71%
Padideh Khorasan or Gol Gohar
67%
Draw or Gol Gohar
62%

Winning margin

Padideh Khorasan wins by 2+
14%
Gol Gohar wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Padideh Khorasan 1+ goals
62%
Padideh Khorasan 2+ goals
25%
Padideh Khorasan 3+ goals
7%
Gol Gohar 1+ goals
55%
Gol Gohar 2+ goals
19%
Gol Gohar 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Padideh Khorasan (draw refunded)
57%
Gol Gohar (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Padideh Khorasan at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.73 · 60 matches

Gol Gohar away — creates 0.88, concedes 0.91 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Padideh Khorasan attack 1.00 + Gol Gohar defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.96

Gol Gohar attack 0.88 + Padideh Khorasan defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Padideh Khorasan scores more
38%
level
33%
Gol Gohar scores more
29%

Padideh Khorasan at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Padideh Khorasan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Padideh Khorasan vs Gol Gohar

Gol Gohar beat Padideh Khorasan 2-1 in Persian Gulf Pro League on December 10, 2021.

The match was played at Samen Al-Aeme Stadium in Mashhad.