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Gol Gohar vs Padideh Khorasan — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018

Gol Gohar
Gol Gohar
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Padideh Khorasan
Padideh Khorasan
7/5/2020Persian Gulf Pro LeaguePersian Gulf Pro League · Round 23Imam Ali Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Gol Gohar45%
×Draw30%
Padideh Khorasan26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gol Gohar
1.21
Padideh Khorasan
0.84

Gol Gohar creates 44% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 58 away

creates per match

Gol Gohar
1.28
Padideh Khorasan
0.72

allows per match

Gol Gohar
0.97
Padideh Khorasan
1.14

finishing

Gol Gohar+0.00on par
Padideh Khorasan+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gol Gohar ↓

Padideh Khorasan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Gol Gohar or draw
74%
Gol Gohar or Padideh Khorasan
70%
Draw or Padideh Khorasan
55%

Winning margin

Gol Gohar wins by 2+
20%
Padideh Khorasan wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Gol Gohar 1+ goals
70%
Gol Gohar 2+ goals
34%
Gol Gohar 3+ goals
12%
Padideh Khorasan 1+ goals
57%
Padideh Khorasan 2+ goals
21%
Padideh Khorasan 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Gol Gohar (draw refunded)
64%
Padideh Khorasan (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gol Gohar at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.97 · 101 matches

Padideh Khorasan away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.14 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gol Gohar attack 1.28 + Padideh Khorasan defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.21

Padideh Khorasan attack 0.72 + Gol Gohar defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Gol Gohar scores more
45%
level
30%
Padideh Khorasan scores more
26%

Gol Gohar at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Gol Gohar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gol Gohar vs Padideh Khorasan

Padideh Khorasan beat Gol Gohar 1-0 in Persian Gulf Pro League on July 5, 2020.

The match was played at Imam Ali Stadium in Sirjan.