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Padideh Khorasan vs Aluminium Arak — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018

Padideh Khorasan
Padideh Khorasan
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Aluminium Arak
Aluminium Arak
12/23/2020Persian Gulf Pro LeaguePersian Gulf Pro League · Round 8Imam Reza Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Padideh Khorasan41%
×Draw33%
Aluminium Arak25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Padideh Khorasan
1.01
Aluminium Arak
0.72

Padideh Khorasan creates 40% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 86 away

creates per match

Padideh Khorasan
1.00
Aluminium Arak
0.71

allows per match

Padideh Khorasan
0.73
Aluminium Arak
1.02

finishing

Padideh Khorasan+0.00on par
Aluminium Arak+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Padideh Khorasan ↓

Aluminium Arak →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
52%48%2.5
25%75%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Padideh Khorasan or draw
75%
Padideh Khorasan or Aluminium Arak
67%
Draw or Aluminium Arak
59%

Winning margin

Padideh Khorasan wins by 2+
16%
Aluminium Arak wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Padideh Khorasan 1+ goals
64%
Padideh Khorasan 2+ goals
27%
Padideh Khorasan 3+ goals
8%
Aluminium Arak 1+ goals
51%
Aluminium Arak 2+ goals
16%
Aluminium Arak 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Padideh Khorasan (draw refunded)
62%
Aluminium Arak (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Padideh Khorasan at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.73 · 60 matches

Aluminium Arak away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.02 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Padideh Khorasan attack 1.00 + Aluminium Arak defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.01

Aluminium Arak attack 0.71 + Padideh Khorasan defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Padideh Khorasan scores more
41%
level
33%
Aluminium Arak scores more
25%

Padideh Khorasan at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Padideh Khorasan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Padideh Khorasan vs Aluminium Arak

Padideh Khorasan and Aluminium Arak drew 2-2 in Persian Gulf Pro League on December 23, 2020.

The match was played at Imam Reza Stadium in Mashhad.