Aluminium Arak 1–0 Padideh Khorasan: Result & Stats

Aluminium Arak

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Padideh Khorasan

5/14/2021

Persian Gulf Pro League · Round 23Imam Khomeini Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Aluminium Arak40%

×Draw33%

Padideh Khorasan27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Aluminium ArakExpected goals in this matchPadideh Khorasan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

0.76

Aluminium Arak

1.00

Padideh Khorasan

0.76

Aluminium Arak creates 32% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 58 away

0.87

creates per match

0.72

0.79

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Aluminium Arak

0.87

Padideh Khorasan

0.72

allows per match

Aluminium Arak

0.79

Padideh Khorasan

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aluminium Arak+0.00on par

Padideh Khorasan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under74
Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aluminium Arak ↓

Padideh Khorasan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–113%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

53%47%2.5

26%74%3.5

10%90%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Aluminium Arak or draw

73%

Aluminium Arak or Padideh Khorasan

67%

Draw or Padideh Khorasan

60%

Winning margin

Aluminium Arak wins by 2+

15%

Padideh Khorasan wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Aluminium Arak 1+ goals

63%

Aluminium Arak 2+ goals

26%

Aluminium Arak 3+ goals

8%

Padideh Khorasan 1+ goals

53%

Padideh Khorasan 2+ goals

18%

Padideh Khorasan 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Aluminium Arak (draw refunded)

60%

Padideh Khorasan (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aluminium Arak at home — creates 0.87, concedes 0.79 · 85 matches

Padideh Khorasan away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.14 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aluminium Arak attack 0.87 + Padideh Khorasan defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.00

Padideh Khorasan attack 0.72 + Aluminium Arak defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Aluminium Arak scores more

40%

level

33%

Padideh Khorasan scores more

27%

Aluminium Arak at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Aluminium Arak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff