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Padideh Khorasan vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC — AFC Champions League 2018

Padideh Khorasan
Padideh Khorasan
CANC
15:00
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
9/20/2020AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group Stage - 5Al Janoub Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Padideh Khorasan20%
×Draw26%
Al-Hilal Saudi FC54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Padideh Khorasan
0.82
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
1.52

Al-Hilal Saudi FC creates 85% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 39 away

creates per match

Padideh Khorasan
0.67
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
2.05

allows per match

Padideh Khorasan
1.00
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
0.97

finishing

Padideh Khorasan+0.00on par
Al-Hilal Saudi FC+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Padideh Khorasan ↓

Al-Hilal Saudi FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–115%
0–211%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Padideh Khorasan or draw
46%
Padideh Khorasan or Al-Hilal Saudi FC
74%
Draw or Al-Hilal Saudi FC
80%

Winning margin

Padideh Khorasan wins by 2+
6%
Al-Hilal Saudi FC wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Padideh Khorasan 1+ goals
56%
Padideh Khorasan 2+ goals
20%
Padideh Khorasan 3+ goals
5%
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1+ goals
78%
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2+ goals
45%
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Padideh Khorasan (draw refunded)
27%
Al-Hilal Saudi FC (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Padideh Khorasan at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Al-Hilal Saudi FC away — creates 2.05, concedes 0.97 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Padideh Khorasan attack 0.67 + Al-Hilal Saudi FC defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.82

Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 2.05 + Padideh Khorasan defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Padideh Khorasan scores more
20%
level
26%
Al-Hilal Saudi FC scores more
54%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Al-Hilal Saudi FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Padideh Khorasan vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC — Match Preview

Padideh Khorasan face Al-Hilal Saudi FC on September 20, 2020 in this AFC Champions League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Padideh Khorasan host Al-Hilal Saudi FC at Al Janoub Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.