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Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Padideh Khorasan — AFC Champions League 2018

Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Padideh Khorasan
Padideh Khorasan
2/10/2020AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group Stage - 1Zabeel Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Al-Hilal Saudi FC78%
×Draw16%
Padideh Khorasan6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Hilal Saudi FC
2.12
Padideh Khorasan
0.39

Al-Hilal Saudi FC creates 444% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 3 away

creates per match

Al-Hilal Saudi FC
2.23
Padideh Khorasan
0.00

allows per match

Al-Hilal Saudi FC
0.78
Padideh Khorasan
2.00

finishing

Al-Hilal Saudi FC+0.00on par
Padideh Khorasan+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

72%No
  • No72
  • Yes28

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Hilal Saudi FC ↓

Padideh Khorasan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–17%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–018%
2–17%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–013%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (18%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Al-Hilal Saudi FC or draw
94%
Al-Hilal Saudi FC or Padideh Khorasan
84%
Draw or Padideh Khorasan
22%

Winning margin

Al-Hilal Saudi FC wins by 2+
52%
Padideh Khorasan wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1+ goals
88%
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2+ goals
62%
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3+ goals
35%
Padideh Khorasan 1+ goals
32%
Padideh Khorasan 2+ goals
6%
Padideh Khorasan 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Al-Hilal Saudi FC (draw refunded)
93%
Padideh Khorasan (draw refunded)
7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home — creates 2.23, concedes 0.78 · 40 matches

Padideh Khorasan away — creates 0.00, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 2.23 + Padideh Khorasan defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.12

Padideh Khorasan attack 0.00 + Al-Hilal Saudi FC defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Al-Hilal Saudi FC scores more
78%
level
16%
Padideh Khorasan scores more
6%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Al-Hilal Saudi FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Padideh Khorasan

Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Padideh Khorasan 2-0 in AFC Champions League on February 10, 2020.

The match was played at Zabeel Stadion in Dubai.