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Paderborn U19 vs Hoffenheim U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Paderborn U19
Paderborn U19
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Hoffenheim U19
Hoffenheim U19
4/11/2026U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Round 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Paderborn U1939%
×Draw21%
Hoffenheim U1940%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paderborn U19
2.04
Hoffenheim U19
2.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 62 home / 76 away

creates per match

Paderborn U19
2.34
Hoffenheim U19
2.79

allows per match

Paderborn U19
1.32
Hoffenheim U19
1.75

finishing

Paderborn U19+0.00on par
Hoffenheim U19+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paderborn U19 ↓

Hoffenheim U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–27%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Paderborn U19 or draw
60%
Paderborn U19 or Hoffenheim U19
79%
Draw or Hoffenheim U19
61%

Winning margin

Paderborn U19 wins by 2+
22%
Hoffenheim U19 wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Paderborn U19 1+ goals
87%
Paderborn U19 2+ goals
60%
Paderborn U19 3+ goals
33%
Hoffenheim U19 1+ goals
87%
Hoffenheim U19 2+ goals
61%
Hoffenheim U19 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Paderborn U19 (draw refunded)
50%
Hoffenheim U19 (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paderborn U19 at home — creates 2.34, concedes 1.32 · 62 matches

Hoffenheim U19 away — creates 2.79, concedes 1.75 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paderborn U19 attack 2.34 + Hoffenheim U19 defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.04

Hoffenheim U19 attack 2.79 + Paderborn U19 defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 2.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Paderborn U19 scores more
39%
level
21%
Hoffenheim U19 scores more
40%

Hoffenheim U19 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Hoffenheim U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Paderborn
Hoffenheim
I. Kalkan
Manager: I. Kalkan
T. Nubbemeyer
Manager: T. Nubbemeyer

Paderborn U19 1 – 1 Hoffenheim U19

Paderborn U19 and Hoffenheim U19 drew 1-1 in U19 Bundesliga on April 11, 2026.