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Hoffenheim U19 vs Paderborn U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Hoffenheim U19
Hoffenheim U19
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
Paderborn U19
Paderborn U19
2/22/2026U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Round 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Hoffenheim U1953%
×Draw19%
Paderborn U1927%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hoffenheim U19
2.47
Paderborn U19
1.75

Hoffenheim U19 creates 41% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 60 away

creates per match

Hoffenheim U19
3.17
Paderborn U19
2.15

allows per match

Hoffenheim U19
1.36
Paderborn U19
1.77

finishing

Hoffenheim U19+0.00on par
Paderborn U19+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hoffenheim U19 ↓

Paderborn U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Hoffenheim U19 or draw
73%
Hoffenheim U19 or Paderborn U19
81%
Draw or Paderborn U19
47%

Winning margin

Hoffenheim U19 wins by 2+
33%
Paderborn U19 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Hoffenheim U19 1+ goals
91%
Hoffenheim U19 2+ goals
70%
Hoffenheim U19 3+ goals
44%
Paderborn U19 1+ goals
83%
Paderborn U19 2+ goals
52%
Paderborn U19 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Hoffenheim U19 (draw refunded)
66%
Paderborn U19 (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hoffenheim U19 at home — creates 3.17, concedes 1.36 · 78 matches

Paderborn U19 away — creates 2.15, concedes 1.77 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hoffenheim U19 attack 3.17 + Paderborn U19 defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 2.47

Paderborn U19 attack 2.15 + Hoffenheim U19 defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Hoffenheim U19 scores more
53%
level
19%
Paderborn U19 scores more
27%

Hoffenheim U19 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Hoffenheim U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Hoffenheim
Paderborn
T. Nubbemeyer
Manager: T. Nubbemeyer
I. Kalkan
Manager: I. Kalkan

Match Recap: Hoffenheim U19 vs Paderborn U19

Paderborn U19 beat Hoffenheim U19 4-1 in U19 Bundesliga on February 22, 2026.