Paderborn U19 6–1 Hennef 05 U19: Result & Stats

Paderborn U19

FT

6 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Hennef 05 U19

K. George 87', 86'

A. Altay 54', 49'

F. Babak 22'

S. Tsanev 20'

L. Dang 65' (pen)

5/10/2025

U19 Bundesliga · 2nd Phase Group B - 13Trainings- und Nachwuchsleistungszentrum Platz 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Paderborn U1966%

×Draw17%

Hennef 05 U1917%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Paderborn U19Expected goals in this matchHennef 05 U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.67

1.31

Paderborn U19

2.67

Hennef 05 U19

1.31

Paderborn U19 creates 104% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 13 away

2.34

creates per match

1.31

1.32

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Paderborn U19

2.34

Hennef 05 U19

1.31

allows per match

Paderborn U19

1.32

Hennef 05 U19

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Paderborn U19+0.00on par

Hennef 05 U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paderborn U19 ↓

Hennef 05 U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–32%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Paderborn U19 or draw

83%

Paderborn U19 or Hennef 05 U19

83%

Draw or Hennef 05 U19

34%

Winning margin

Paderborn U19 wins by 2+

45%

Hennef 05 U19 wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Paderborn U19 1+ goals

93%

Paderborn U19 2+ goals

74%

Paderborn U19 3+ goals

49%

Hennef 05 U19 1+ goals

73%

Hennef 05 U19 2+ goals

38%

Hennef 05 U19 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Paderborn U19 (draw refunded)

79%

Hennef 05 U19 (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paderborn U19 at home — creates 2.34, concedes 1.32 · 62 matches

Hennef 05 U19 away — creates 1.31, concedes 3.00 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paderborn U19 attack 2.34 + Hennef 05 U19 defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.67

Hennef 05 U19 attack 1.31 + Paderborn U19 defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Paderborn U19 scores more

66%

level

17%

Hennef 05 U19 scores more

17%

Paderborn U19 at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Paderborn U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

L. Dang← N. Mofa

20'

S. Tsanev

22'

F. Babak

31'

J. Grauer← K. Becher

46'

K. George← J. Markötter

46'

S. Music← A. Rznic

49'

A. Altay

54'

A. Altay

55'

F. Goutzidis← A. Bouakran

55'

J. Fuhrmann← S. Pietrek

55'

S. Andric← B. Yörük

60'

A. Špago← A. Altay

60'

E. Gündoğdu← C. Agirayak

65'

F. Meyer← M. Theiß

65'

L. DangPenalty

75'

H. Mohammad← F. Babak

86'

K. George

87'

K. George

Paderborn

Hennef

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

Altay

Manager: I. Kalkan

46'▲K. George←▼J. Markötter

60'▲A. Špago←▼A. Altay

60'▲E. Gündoğdu←▼C. Agirayak

65'▲F. Meyer←▼M. Theiß

75'▲H. Mohammad←▼F. Babak

Paderborn U19 substitutes

GeorgeŠpagoGündoğduMeyerMohammadSchiano

Manager: M. Lunga

16'▲L. Dang←▼N. Mofa

31'▲J. Grauer←▼K. Becher

46'▲S. Music←▼A. Rznic

55'▲F. Goutzidis←▼A. Bouakran

55'▲J. Fuhrmann←▼S. Pietrek

55'▲S. Andric←▼B. Yörük

Hennef 05 U19 substitutes

DangGrauerMusicGoutzidisFuhrmannAndricBouakran