Hennef 05 U19 1–1 Paderborn U19: Result & Stats

Hennef 05 U19

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Paderborn U19

K. Cornelius 4'

M. Theiß 36'

3/8/2025

U19 Bundesliga · 2nd Phase Group B - 6Stadion im Sportzentrum Hennef

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Hennef 05 U1928%

×Draw21%

Paderborn U1951%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hennef 05 U19Expected goals in this matchPaderborn U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

2.15

Hennef 05 U19

1.54

Paderborn U19

2.15

Paderborn U19 creates 40% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 60 away

1.31

creates per match

2.15

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Hennef 05 U19

1.31

Paderborn U19

2.15

allows per match

Hennef 05 U19

2.15

Paderborn U19

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hennef 05 U19+0.00on par

Paderborn U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hennef 05 U19 ↓

Paderborn U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Hennef 05 U19 or draw

49%

Hennef 05 U19 or Paderborn U19

79%

Draw or Paderborn U19

72%

Winning margin

Hennef 05 U19 wins by 2+

13%

Paderborn U19 wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Hennef 05 U19 1+ goals

79%

Hennef 05 U19 2+ goals

45%

Hennef 05 U19 3+ goals

20%

Paderborn U19 1+ goals

88%

Paderborn U19 2+ goals

63%

Paderborn U19 3+ goals

36%

Draw no bet

Hennef 05 U19 (draw refunded)

35%

Paderborn U19 (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hennef 05 U19 at home — creates 1.31, concedes 2.15 · 13 matches

Paderborn U19 away — creates 2.15, concedes 1.77 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hennef 05 U19 attack 1.31 + Paderborn U19 defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.54

Paderborn U19 attack 2.15 + Hennef 05 U19 defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 2.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Hennef 05 U19 scores more

28%

level

21%

Paderborn U19 scores more

51%

Paderborn U19 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Paderborn U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

K. Cornelius

36'

M. Theiß

60'

A. Špago← J. Kerlen

63'

A. Ćorić← A. Bouakran

63'

S. Pietrek← K. Cornelius

68'

F. Meyer← A. Zajaczek

68'

68'

70'

70'

79'

J. Markötter← F. Babak

81'

D. Nduchekwe← H. Suguro

81'

L. Dang← A. Rznic

Hennef

Paderborn

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⚽

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▼

▼

▼

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⚽

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Cornelius

Manager: M. Lunga

63'▲A. Ćorić←▼A. Bouakran

63'▲S. Pietrek←▼K. Cornelius

70'▲K. Becher←▼B. Yörük

70'▲N. Kunz←▼A. Ćorić

81'▲D. Nduchekwe←▼H. Suguro

81'▲L. Dang←▼A. Rznic

Hennef 05 U19 substitutes

ĆorićPietrekBecherKunzNduchekweDangBouakran

Manager: I. Kalkan

60'▲A. Špago←▼J. Kerlen

68'▲F. Meyer←▼A. Zajaczek

68'▲K. George←▼J. Peters

68'▲M. Runte←▼M. Theiß

79'▲J. Markötter←▼F. Babak

Paderborn U19 substitutes

ŠpagoMeyerGeorgeRunteMarkötterObertrifterJuka